Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x323e…621e other 80 markets active 2d ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$21 (-8%) realized −$20 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%35W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days−$25
14 days−$22
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$8
sports 24% −$7
world 19% −$19
finance 6% +$2
crypto 2% −$6
politics 1% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -40.8% -46.4% 28% 28% -35.3%
≤30d 32 -0.8% -10.2% 44% 44% -16.5%
≤90d 75 -14.2% -22.4% 47% 45% -18.2%
all 75 -14.2% -22.4% 47% 45% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 45% -18.2%
10% -29.8% 40% -26.1%
15% -36.6% 35% -33.2%
20% -42.8% 25% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$20
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses35 / 40
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)75 / 80
History coverage64d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 95¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 25¢ 20¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-22%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$8 +272%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 +$2 +41%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $6 +$3 +49%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 07 $1 +$4 +365%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2 +$1 +49%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 01 $2 +$1 +76%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 26 $4 +$2 +55%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $2 +$2 +93%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $2 +$4 +197%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $2 +$3 +158%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 17 $3 +$7 +212%
Michael Olise: Anytime Goalscorer May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in April? May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-10? May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? May 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 2 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-05-03? May 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 Week of May 4 2026? May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $5 +$3 +64%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $1 $0 +20%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 5? May 09 $3 $0 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 42h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 42h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 42h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 6d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $1 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $5 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 21¢ $1 13d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 56¢ $2 17d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 35¢ $5 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.70 · official $19.70 (match) · 159 history records