Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:31:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

32
0x323f…9462
crypto · 178 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
+$58 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$59 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized+$59
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses111 / 65
Open positions1
Markets (closed)176 / 178
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day154.5
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 1 History 176 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days+$59
14 days+$59
30 days+$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-39%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 98% +$59
other 2% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 1h
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 176 +11.2% +0.6% 63% 63% +0.9%
≤30d 176 +11.2% +0.6% 63% 63% +0.9%
≤90d 176 +11.2% +0.6% 63% 63% +0.9%
all 176 +11.2% +0.6% 63% 63% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover154.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.6% 63% +0.9%
10% ← realistic here -9.0% 63% -8.7%
15% -17.8% 63% -17.5%
20% -25.9% 62% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.22 · official $11.22 · 292 history records