Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:11:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

32
0x323f…8624
other · 100 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
+$27 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$32 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses39 / 58
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions3
Markets (closed)97 / 100
History coverage517d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 3 History 97 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$1
14 days+$5
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? Yes 78¢ 80¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-16%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $89 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $7 $0 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $83 +$2 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $190 −$1 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $42 +$2 +5%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 08 $57 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $316 −$2 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $277 +$1 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $99 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $87 +$3 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $187 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $53 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $195 −$1 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $2 $0 -15%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $45 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $239 +$4 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $4 $0 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $8 −$2 -22%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $97 −$1 -1%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 26 $35 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? Apr 26 $61 $0 -0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 25 $65 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $1,068 +$1 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $590 +$2 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $64 +$1 +2%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $584 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $585 $0 +0%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Jun 26 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 20 $7 $0 -1%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 06 $3 −$2 -85%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 05 $4 +$1 +14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? Jun 02 $24 −$4 -15%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 28 $5 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? May 27 $4 −$3 -68%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? May 26 $3 $0 -3%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 25 $26 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? May 24 $27 $0 -0%
Will 'My Hero Academia: You’re Next' win Crunchyroll's Film of the Yea May 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in May? May 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will Knicks vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 20 $28 −$1 -2%
Will Charles Leclerc finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 20 $28 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times May 16–23? May 19 $28 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 18 $26 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 18 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 14 $44 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 33% +$6
sports 21% +$21
economics 17% +$2
politics 13% +$4
other 13% +$3
crypto 2% −$5
culture 1% $0
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $89 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $89 2h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 7h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 9h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 12h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 15h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $98 26h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $103 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $81 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $4 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $6 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $23 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $54 40h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $15 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 24¢ $15 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $28 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $12 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $19 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $24 4d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL Yes 28¢ $11 5d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL Yes 28¢ $45 5d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $23 5d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $34 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $92 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $92 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.2% -8.4% 38% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 21 -1.2% -10.6% 33% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 30 -0.8% -10.3% 37% 0% -9.3%
all 97 +4.3% -5.6% 40% 9% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 9% -9.1%
10% -14.6% 7% -17.8%
15% -22.9% 7% -25.7%
20% -30.4% 6% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.80 · official $1.57 (match) · 389 history records