Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:31:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
32 0x3241…45bc crypto 50 markets active 0h ago coverage 593d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$227 (+10%) realized +$257 · open −$30
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate67%31W / 15L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% +$165
politics 35% −$1
sports 4% −$9
other 2% $0
finance 2% $0
culture 1% +$4
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -0.6% -10.0% 58% 53% -11.9%
≤30d 19 -0.6% -10.0% 58% 53% -11.9%
≤90d 21 -4.4% -13.5% 57% 52% -12.0%
all 46 +1.9% -7.8% 67% 37% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 37% -1.2%
10% -16.6% 35% -10.7%
15% -24.6% 35% -19.3%
20% -32.0% 35% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$26 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

593d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized+$257
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses31 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)46 / 50
History coverage593d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Down 50¢ 52¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+2%)
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Down 50¢ 52¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 49¢ 54¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Down 34¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $32 −$31 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $27 −$26 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $32 +$28 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$20 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$21 +81%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$21 +80%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$21 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$19 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$20 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $27 −$26 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$15 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$14 +68%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less tha Apr 30 $20 +$4 +19%
Solana Up or Down - February 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Feb 14 $60 +$50 +84%
XRP Up or Down - February 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Feb 14 $60 +$49 +82%
XRP Up or Down - February 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Feb 14 $100 +$80 +80%
Solana Up or Down - February 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Feb 14 $100 +$79 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Feb 14 $80 −$79 -98%
Solana Up or Down - February 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Feb 14 $80 −$79 -98%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 24 be less than 2, Feb 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will Nike say "China" during earnings call? Jan 24 $17 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - December 5, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Dec 08 $111 +$107 +96%
Will Trump say "Pardon" this week (November 24–30)? Dec 06 $22 $0 +1%
Yieldbasis FDV above $500M one day after launch? Nov 24 $22 $0 +1%
Will Barcelona finish in the top 4 of the La Liga 2025–26 standings? Oct 07 $20 −$5 -26%
Taylor Swift's "The Life of a Showgirl" debuts at #1? Sep 23 $14 $0 +0%
10-year Treasury yield >4.3% Friday? Aug 19 $26 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu before August? Jul 11 $13 $0 +1%
Another SpaceX Dragon x NASA mission to the ISS in 2025? Jul 03 $13 −$1 -9%
New Netherlands election announced before Summer Recess? Jun 18 $13 $0 +2%
Will the National Council for the Defense of Democracy – Forces for th Jun 06 $14 $0 +1%
Will Lakas win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2 May 20 $12 $0 +1%
NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Grizzlies (To Advance) May 05 $27 $0 +1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder get the #1 seed in 2025 NBA Western Con Apr 21 $26 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Mar 14 $672 +$1 +0%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104 Nov 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $7 +$6 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 1m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 1m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $3 9m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 11m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 17m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 29m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $4 29m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 29m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 29m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $3 29m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $17 31m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.75 · official $81.24 · 160 history records