Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:53:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x3242…0e0b sports 384 markets active 2h ago coverage 182d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$24,203 (-13%) realized −$24,194 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%159W / 224L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$484per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$998est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$180
7 days−$1,548
14 days−$1,238
30 days−$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$25,976
other 2% +$1,128
economics 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -22.0% -29.4% 33% 33% -29.1%
≤30d 31 +0.5% -9.1% 45% 45% -10.2%
≤90d 309 -39.8% -45.5% 28% 28% -48.6%
all 383 -12.5% -20.8% 42% 41% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 41% -21.6%
10% -28.4% 41% -29.1%
15% -35.3% 41% -36.0%
20% -41.6% 41% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$570) neutral
Persistence
early +13% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$518 vs −$478 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

182d coverage
Net worth$193
Realized−$24,194
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses159 / 224
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$998
Open positions1
Markets (closed)383 / 384
History coverage182d
Avg bet$484
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 383 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Under 11¢ 10¢ $203 $193 −$9 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $330 −$330 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $390 −$390 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $435 −$435 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $506 +$594 +117%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $528 −$528 -100%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $490 +$909 +185%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $472 −$472 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $558 −$558 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $531 −$531 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $473 +$626 +132%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $409 +$570 +139%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $613 −$605 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $520 +$498 +96%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 14 $490 −$490 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $406 −$406 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 09 $298 +$310 +104%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 03 $548 −$540 -98%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 172.5 May 29 $431 −$425 -98%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 171.5 May 29 $113 −$112 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 28 $549 −$549 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5 May 27 $557 +$541 +97%
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $425 −$420 -99%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $537 −$528 -98%
Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $590 +$410 +70%
Nashville SC vs. New York City FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $7 +$11 +141%
Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 2.5 May 24 $448 +$652 +146%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 215.5 May 24 $572 +$528 +92%
D.C. United SC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 4.5 May 24 $528 +$571 +108%
PortlandFire vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 173.5 May 24 $525 +$574 +109%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5 May 23 $540 +$958 +178%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 May 21 $544 −$544 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5 May 08 $600 +$600 +100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 215.5 May 07 $595 −$595 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 29 $582 −$570 -98%
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 214.5 Apr 28 $580 −$571 -99%
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 215.5 Apr 24 $600 −$591 -98%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 Apr 24 $348 −$348 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 215.5 Apr 24 $600 +$630 +105%
Real Oviedo vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5 Apr 23 $504 −$503 -100%
Jazz vs. Lakers: O/U 238.5 Apr 20 $610 −$610 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5 Apr 20 $600 −$591 -98%
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 14 $585 −$585 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 230.5 Apr 13 $52 +$47 +90%
Bulls vs. Mavericks: O/U 249.5 Apr 13 $208 +$186 +90%
Bulls vs. Mavericks: O/U 248.5 Apr 13 $368 +$316 +86%
Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 231.5 Apr 13 $525 +$508 +97%
Warriors vs. Clippers: O/U 228.5 Apr 13 $603 −$602 -100%
Columbus Crew vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5 Apr 13 $552 −$552 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 11 $660 −$660 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. Girona FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 11 $575 −$575 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 11¢ $163 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 22¢ $292 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 22¢ $0 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 22¢ $0 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 22¢ $5 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 22¢ $32 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 11¢ $45 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 26¢ $390 3h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $162 7h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $273 7h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $169 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $37 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $23 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $93 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $9 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $50 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $14 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $5 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $23 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $45 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $2 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $9 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $18 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $28 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $2 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Under 46¢ $506 22h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $1,399 22h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $490 25h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $472 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $558 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $193.37 · official $193.37 (match) · 1632 history records