Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:31:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x3244…13ec sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$226 (-28%) realized −$226 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%3W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$85
7 days−$258
14 days−$258
30 days−$258
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$117
politics 39% −$96
other 8% −$10
crypto 5% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-41.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -35.8% -41.9% 21% 21% -40.8%
≤30d 14 -35.8% -41.9% 21% 21% -40.8%
≤90d 14 -35.8% -41.9% 21% 21% -40.8%
all 14 -35.8% -41.9% 21% 21% -40.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.9% 21% -40.8%
10% -47.5% 21% -46.5%
15% -52.6% 21% -51.6%
20% -57.2% 21% -56.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$32 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$226
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses3 / 11
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage24d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $56 −$3 -6%
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $20 +$16 +78%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $54 +$31 +59%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $19 +$45 +236%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? Jun 16 $310 −$96 -31%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $58 −$22 -38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $26 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $27 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 46¢ $52 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $56 24h
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $20 44h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 30¢ $42 45h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 45h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 45h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $49 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $54 2d
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $14 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 29¢ $19 2d
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $26 2d
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $100 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $36 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 35¢ $36 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $56 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $58 4d
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $114 4d
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $137 20d
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $173 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.79 · official $50.79 (match) · 32 history records