Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:20:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

32
0x324a…5b3a
other · 119 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
+$4 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$34
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses9 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)118 / 119
History coverage108d
Avg bet$336
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%
Chart Positions 1 History 118 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Pistons vs. Thunder Pistons 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Heat vs. Cavaliers Cavaliers 58¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Raptors vs. Pistons Raptors 42¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Wizards vs. Lakers Wizards 9¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Timberwolves Rockets 55¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Jazz Jazz 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $964 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $317 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $388 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $33 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $52 $0 -0%
Will Boris Johnson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 06 $34 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $609 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $959 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $273 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $327 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $840 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $228 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $265 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $295 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $795 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $231 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $243 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $796 −$1 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $292 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $286 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $293 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 13 $291 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $528 −$3 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $263 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $256 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $339 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,036 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $312 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $574 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $651 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $302 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 04 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $234 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $302 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $259 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $285 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $442 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $236 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $283 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $235 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $332 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $636 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $558 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $296 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $339 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $301 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $247 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 50% −$21
politics 34% −$18
sports 6% +$42
crypto 6% −$2
tech 3% −$1
world 1% −$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $34 1h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $38 2d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 2d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 2d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 4d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $52 4d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $52 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 5d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $33 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $33 6d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $52 6d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $52 7d
Will Boris Johnson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $34 8d
Will Boris Johnson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $34 9d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $277 17d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $277 18d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $314 18d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $314 18d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $273 19d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $273 19d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $327 20d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $327 20d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $238 20d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $238 21d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 21d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $228 21d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $265 22d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $265 22d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $295 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 112 -0.3% -9.8% 5% 4% -9.6%
all 118 +3.4% -6.4% 8% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 5% -9.5%
10% -15.4% 4% -18.2%
15% -23.6% 3% -26.1%
20% -31.1% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.98 · official $33.98 (match) · 370 history records