Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:49:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

32
0x324b…2e5c
politics · 37 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$2 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses11 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage317d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 0 History 37 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $3 $0 -14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $44 −$2 -5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $16 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $40 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $107 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $89 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $122K July 28–August 3? Aug 10 $32 $0 +1%
South Korea First Lady Keon-hee arrested in 2025? Aug 04 $4 $0 +14%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 04 $4 $0 +12%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 04 $91 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 04 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Aug 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 04 $25 $0 -1%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 04 $9 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Aug 04 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 03 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 03 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Aug 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 02 $2 $0 -2%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 01 $43 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 01 $55 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 31 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 31 $2 $0 -21%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 31 $4 $0 -0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 31 $53 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 31 $12 $0 -0%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 31? Jul 31 $54 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 30 $59 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 32% −$3
other 27% +$1
politics 20% $0
sports 12% $0
crypto 5% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 19m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 19m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $3 8h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $3 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 75¢ $42 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 79¢ $44 14h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $16 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $16 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $40 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $22 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $8 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 27¢ $19 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 26¢ $18 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 27¢ $28 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $15 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $6 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $20 3d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $45 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $45 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $1 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $9 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $30 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $17 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $24 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $45 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -3.5% -12.7% 17% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 8 -2.6% -11.9% 25% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 8 -2.6% -11.9% 25% 0% -10.2%
all 37 -0.5% -10.0% 30% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 5% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 132 history records