Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:29:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

32 0x324c…557a weather 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 244d

RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$1 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate60%3W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$119per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit85%portable

Net worth$497now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 244d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-8.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	5	+1.2%	-8.4%	60%	0%	-9.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-8.4%	0%	-9.6%
10%	-17.2%	0%	-18.2%
15%	-25.2%	0%	-26.1%
20%	-32.5%	0%	-33.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 86% · top 2 95% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.65 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage

Net worth$497

Realized+$1

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses3 / 2

Open positions8

Markets (closed)5 / 13

History coverage244d

Avg bet$119

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 8 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 44°C or higher on June 26?	No	99¢	99¢	$149	$149	−$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 26?	No	99¢	99¢	$99	$99	−$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 41°C or higher on June 26?	No	100¢	100¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 35°C or higher on June 26?	No	100¢	99¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 40°C on June 26?	No	99¢	99¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C or below on June 26?	No	99¢	99¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C or higher on June 26?	No	100¢	99¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or below on June 26?	No	99¢	99¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Trump visit Gaza by Oct 31?	Feb 22	$10	$0	+1%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?	Feb 22	$10	+$1	+6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on October 25?	Oct 26	$30	$0	+0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026?	Oct 24	$510	−$1	-0%
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026?	Oct 24	$490	$0	-0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 44°C or higher on June 26?	BUY No	100¢	$28	1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 44°C or higher on June 26?	BUY No	100¢	$100	1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or below on June 26?	BUY No	99¢	$20	1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 40°C on June 26?	BUY No	99¢	$50	1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 35°C or higher on June 26?	BUY No	100¢	$50	1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C or below on June 26?	BUY No	99¢	$50	1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C or higher on June 26?	BUY No	100¢	$30	1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 41°C or higher on June 26?	BUY No	100¢	$50	1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 26?	BUY No	99¢	$99	1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 44°C or higher on June 26?	BUY No	99¢	$21	2h
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?	BUY No	95¢	$10	242d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on October 25?	BUY Yes	100¢	$30	242d
Will Trump visit Gaza by Oct 31?	BUY No	99¢	$10	243d
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026?	SELL No	99¢	$310	243d
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$310	243d
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026?	SELL No	99¢	$200	243d
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$200	243d
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026?	SELL No	99¢	$490	243d
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$490	243d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $496.59 · official $496.66 (match) · 22 history records