Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:44:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
32 0x324f…4f73 crypto 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$79 (+1%) realized +$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%88W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$170now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$12
14 days+$26
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 35 +1.7% -8.0% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 82 +1.3% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.5%
all 89 +1.3% -8.4% 99% 0% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 0% -8.5%
10% -17.1% 0% -17.3%
15% -25.1% 0% -25.3%
20% -32.5% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×248.62 per $1 lost it wins $248.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$170
Realized+$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses88 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)89 / 90
History coverage100d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $170 $170 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $167 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $165 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $158 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $159 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $159 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $159 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $158 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $154 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $153 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $150 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $149 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $140 +$4 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $20 +$2 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $122 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $134 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 01 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $85 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 31 $87 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? May 30 $85 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? May 29 $81 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? May 27 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 27 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 26 $84 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 24? May 25 $80 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? May 24 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22? May 23 $81 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? May 22 $77 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 21 $77 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 20 $75 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 18? May 19 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 17? May 18 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 16? May 17 $73 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? May 16 $77 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? May 15 $70 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13? May 14 $70 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 13 $74 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 11? May 12 $70 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10? May 11 $70 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? May 10 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? May 09 $67 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 7? May 08 $70 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 6? May 07 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 4? May 06 $67 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $170 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $167 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $165 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $158 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $159 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $159 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $159 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $158 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? BUY No 92¢ $5 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $150 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? BUY No 98¢ $154 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $153 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? BUY No 98¢ $150 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $149 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? BUY No 97¢ $40 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? BUY No 97¢ $140 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? BUY No 92¢ $20 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 99¢ $122 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $105 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 96¢ $30 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $104 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? BUY No 96¢ $30 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $134 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? BUY No 99¢ $85 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $87 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? BUY No 99¢ $85 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $81 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $55 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? BUY No 96¢ $30 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? BUY No 99¢ $84 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $169.74 · official $169.74 (match) · 183 history records