Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:24:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

32 0x3250…81c2 crypto 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$36 (+1%) realized +$36 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip

Net edge-17%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate75%3W / 1L

Drawdown20%max

Avg bet$619per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$1,000now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-10.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-0.8%	-10.2%	75%	0%	-8.1%
≤30d	4	-0.8%	-10.2%	75%	0%	-8.1%
≤90d	4	-0.8%	-10.2%	75%	0%	-8.1%
all	4	-0.8%	-10.2%	75%	0%	-8.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-10.2%	0%	-8.1%
10%	-18.8%	0%	-16.9%
15%	-26.7%	0%	-24.9%
20%	-33.9%	0%	-32.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 50% · top 2 99% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$14 vs −$8 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×5.14 per $1 lost it wins $5.14

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$1,000

Realized+$36

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses3 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$619

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown20%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	100¢	100¢	$999	$1,000	+$0 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Jun 21	$50	$0	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12PM ET	Jun 21	$98	−$8	-8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Jun 21	$968	+$21	+2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$980	+$20	+2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	BUY Down	99¢	$50	49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12PM ET	BUY Down	99¢	$50	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12PM ET	SELL Down	81¢	$40	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12PM ET	BUY Down	97¢	$49	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	100¢	$999	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$989	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	BUY Up	97¢	$968	4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	98¢	$980	13h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $999.50 · official $999.50 (match) · 11 history records