Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:26:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x3252…2ece sports 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$139 (-1%) realized −$138 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate80%87W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$21
30 days−$144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$64
other 0% −$9
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 71 -13.1% -21.4% 75% 35% -11.8%
≤90d 109 -8.3% -17.0% 80% 33% -10.2%
all 109 -8.3% -17.0% 80% 33% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 33% -10.2%
10% -25.0% 12% -18.8%
15% -32.2% 4% -26.7%
20% -38.9% 2% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$36 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$138
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses87 / 22
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 110
History coverage37d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In T1 87¢ 86¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +15%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $30 −$6 -19%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $105 +$8 +8%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Honor of Kings: AG Super Play vs Kuaishou Gaming (BO5) - King Pro Leag Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Honor of Kings: LGD NBW vs Royal Never Give Up (BO5) - King Pro League Jun 18 $5 +$2 +31%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $105 +$8 +8%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 18 $5 +$1 +21%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $5 +$1 +27%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $5 +$1 +21%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $5 +$3 +57%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Honor of Kings: WST vs Rogue Warriors (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $10 +$1 +14%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $10 +$3 +32%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $10 +$1 +7%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $100 +$12 +12%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $101 +$24 +24%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $110 +$9 +8%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$4 +36%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $402 +$29 +7%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $359 +$45 +12%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $212 −$199 -94%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $11 −$10 -87%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $20 +$3 +16%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $200 +$5 +2%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $211 +$13 +6%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $110 +$3 +2%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $11 +$2 +17%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $61 +$3 +5%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $1 $0 +29%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $200 +$14 +7%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $100 +$13 +13%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $112 +$6 +5%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $101 +$6 +6%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $1 $0 +13%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $110 +$9 +8%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $101 +$5 +5%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $122 +$4 +3%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $110 +$4 +3%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $60 +$2 +4%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $110 +$5 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 87¢ $100 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 92¢ $10 7d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $5 7d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 88¢ $5 7d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 85¢ $5 7d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 14¢ $2 7d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 70¢ $5 7d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 67¢ $5 7d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 60¢ $5 9d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 37¢ $5 9d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 94¢ $100 9d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 74¢ $5 9d
Honor of Kings: AG Super Play vs Kuaishou Gaming (BO5) - King Pro Leag BUY Kuaishou Gaming 68¢ $5 9d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 93¢ $100 10d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 88¢ $5 10d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 82¢ $5 10d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 78¢ $5 10d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 87¢ $5 10d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 10d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 82¢ $5 10d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 91¢ $5 10d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 63¢ $5 10d
Honor of Kings: LGD NBW vs Royal Never Give Up (BO5) - King Pro League BUY LGD NBW 76¢ $5 10d
Honor of Kings: WST vs Rogue Warriors (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 BUY Rogue Warriors 73¢ $5 10d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 87¢ $10 11d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 70¢ $10 11d
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 93¢ $10 11d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 75¢ $10 11d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 89¢ $100 14d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 95¢ $100 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.43 · official $99.43 (match) · 296 history records