Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:33:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x3252…1d21 sports 750 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 45d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,223 (-7%) realized −$6,261 · open +$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%328W / 503L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day73.9pace
Fees−$1,376est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 45d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$3,838
crypto 11% +$721
other 0% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 246 -29.6% -36.3% 28% 28% -43.5%
≤30d 612 -12.2% -20.5% 38% 38% -23.6%
≤90d 831 -9.4% -18.0% 39% 39% -21.1%
all 831 -9.4% -18.0% 39% 39% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 39% -21.1%
10% ← realistic here -25.9% 39% -28.6%
15% -33.0% 39% -35.5%
20% -39.6% 39% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$141 vs −$120 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$6,261
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses328 / 503
Est. fees paid−$1,376
Open positions1
Markets (closed)831 / 750
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$126
Trades / day73.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 831 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Emma Navarro 49¢ 88¢ $49 $88 +$38 (+79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 438 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 17 $110 −$110 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs Jun 17 $77 −$77 -100%
Rome: Andrea Vavassori vs Pol Martin Tiffon Jun 17 $198 −$198 -100%
Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx Jun 17 $90 −$90 -100%
Madrid Open: Dino Prizmic vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 17 $107 −$107 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets Jun 17 $23 −$97 -414%
Madrid Open: Alexandre Muller vs Jan-Lennard Struff Jun 17 $256 −$256 -100%
Gwangju: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Lightning vs. Canadiens Jun 17 $128 −$128 -100%
Madrid Open: Alexander Bublik vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger Chin Jun 17 $72 −$72 -100%
Aix en Provence: Yibing Wu vs Ethan Quinn Jun 17 $143 −$143 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $155 −$155 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Jiujiang: Adam Walton vs Coleman Wong Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Jiujiang: Rio Noguchi vs Coleman Wong Jun 17 $170 −$170 -100%
Madrid Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Vit Kopriva Jun 17 $148 −$148 -100%
Madrid Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 17 $151 −$151 -100%
Madrid Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Elena Rybakina Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Mauthausen: Sandro Kopp vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 17 $180 −$180 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $189 −$189 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 17 $95 −$95 -100%
Cagliari: Mattia Bellucci vs Gianluca Cadenasso Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Jun 17 $144 −$144 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Madrid Open: Ben Shelton vs Dino Prizmic Jun 17 $252 −$252 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $97 −$97 -100%
Cagliari: Lorenzo Sonego vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 17 $90 −$90 -100%
Madrid Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Titouan Droguet Jun 17 $100 −$84 -84%
Golden Knights vs. Utah Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Wes Schultz vs. Ben Johnston (Middleweight, Prelims) Jun 17 $106 −$106 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Madrid Open: Cameron Norrie vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Jun 17 $172 −$172 -100%
Mauthausen: Joel Schwaerzler vs Jan Choinski Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Gwangju: Pavel Kotov vs Mikhail Kukushkin Jun 17 $198 −$198 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Oilers vs. Ducks Jun 17 $137 −$137 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 17 $198 −$198 -100%
Madrid Open: Vit Kopriva vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 17 $148 −$148 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $149 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Cagliari: Gianluca Cadenasso vs Jesper de Jong Jun 17 $169 −$358 -211%
Gwangju: Alex Bolt vs Ilia Simakin Jun 17 $127 −$127 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
BMW Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Ben Shelton Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 49¢ $50 23m
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman SELL Laslo Djere 100¢ $300 45m
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau SELL Alexis Galarneau 100¢ $336 48m
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 46¢ $47 1h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 46¢ $93 1h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $100 1h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Alexis Galarneau 50¢ $33 1h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Alexis Galarneau 50¢ $2 1h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Alexis Galarneau 52¢ $32 1h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Alexis Galarneau 51¢ $3 1h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Alexis Galarneau 53¢ $6 1h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Alexis Galarneau 53¢ $21 1h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Alexis Galarneau 53¢ $80 1h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 55¢ $56 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.50 · official $87.50 (match) · 3500 history records