Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:35:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
32 0x3255…ffb9 sports 135 markets active 4h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$467 (+16%) realized +$469 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%76W / 55L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days+$44
14 days+$46
30 days+$365
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$471
finance 0% −$11
politics 0% −$9
crypto 0% +$1
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +16.3% +5.2% 64% 64% +4.6%
≤30d 74 +20.0% +8.6% 62% 62% +9.5%
≤90d 131 +11.9% +1.2% 58% 58% +4.8%
all 131 +11.9% +1.2% 58% 58% +4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.2% 58% +4.8%
10% -8.5% 57% -5.2%
15% -17.3% 56% -14.4%
20% -25.4% 55% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$21 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized+$469
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses76 / 55
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions4
Markets (closed)131 / 135
History coverage63d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 57¢ 57¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Minnesota Twins 54¢ 54¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Over 53¢ 50¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-5%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 Over 37¢ 36¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $20 +$19 +92%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $31 +$25 +82%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $15 +$14 +89%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $25 +$18 +72%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $25 +$23 +89%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $31 +$27 +89%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $31 +$20 +67%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $20 +$14 +69%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $20 +$20 +96%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $20 +$17 +82%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $20 +$20 +96%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $31 +$27 +89%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $31 −$31 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $30 +$17 +56%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 07 $31 +$37 +120%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 06 $20 +$15 +75%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $20 +$24 +118%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $31 −$31 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 05 $20 +$15 +75%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 05 $31 −$31 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 Jun 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 04 $30 +$16 +54%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 04 $31 +$29 +96%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 03 $15 +$18 +118%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $31 −$31 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 03 $20 +$15 +72%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 02 $10 +$9 +89%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros Jun 02 $20 +$11 +54%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 01 $15 −$15 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 01 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 01 $40 +$71 +178%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 May 31 $15 −$15 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 31 $15 +$11 +69%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets May 31 $15 +$12 +78%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) May 31 $31 +$33 +108%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 May 30 $15 +$12 +82%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 May 30 $15 −$15 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 30 $31 +$26 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 37¢ $20 3h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $31 3h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 54¢ $31 3h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 30h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 48¢ $31 30h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 43¢ $20 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 54¢ $31 5d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 52¢ $15 6d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 52¢ $25 6d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 57¢ $25 6d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 52¢ $31 6d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 6d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $31 7d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 59¢ $31 7d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 BUY Under 50¢ $20 8d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers 51¢ $20 8d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 58¢ $20 8d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 54¢ $20 8d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 66¢ $30 8d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 9d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 54¢ $20 9d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY Cincinnati Reds 52¢ $31 9d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 50¢ $31 9d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 44¢ $31 11d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 63¢ $30 11d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins BUY Tampa Bay Rays 56¢ $20 12d
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Washington Nationals 45¢ $20 12d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 42¢ $20 12d
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Chicago White Sox 38¢ $20 12d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 57¢ $31 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.76 · official $107.76 (match) · 270 history records