Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:08:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x3256…830c other 618 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 72d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$14,596 (-69%) realized −$14,512 · open −$84
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate28%167W / 422L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day40.8pace
Fees−$140est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 72d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$1,091
sports 33% +$286
politics 2% −$215
world 2% −$165
crypto 2% −$85
weather 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-32.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 139 +2.3% -7.5% 43% 32% -14.9%
≤30d 297 -7.1% -15.9% 39% 31% -12.1%
≤90d 589 -25.0% -32.1% 28% 23% -15.5%
all 589 -25.0% -32.1% 28% 23% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.1% 23% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -38.6% 19% -23.6%
15% -44.6% 16% -31.0%
20% -50.0% 13% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$23 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$143
Realized−$14,512
Unrealized−$84
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses167 / 422
Est. fees paid−$140
Open positions29
Markets (closed)589 / 618
History coverage72d ⚠
Avg bet$34
Trades / day40.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 589 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Over 89¢ 90¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Over 85¢ 86¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 72¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Over 90¢ 90¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $8 +$5 (+150%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 74¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Yes 72¢ 71¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $17 $5 −$12 (-72%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $14 $5 −$9 (-66%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Over 31¢ 30¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-70%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists Yes 42¢ 28¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-33%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $13 $2 −$11 (-86%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Over 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $29 $2 −$28 (-95%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-83%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $1 −$4 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $13 +$2 +15%
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 3 Ecuador? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $2 $0 -8%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $19 $0 +0%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $36 +$14 +38%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $9 +$10 +112%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $12 +$2 +16%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $18 +$2 +8%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $16 +$4 +23%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 +$37 +179%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 15 $3 +$6 +185%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $179 $0 -0%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $4 +$6 +143%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $9 +$10 +112%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $19 +$44 +238%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $9 +$1 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $56 +$5 +9%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 +$1 +11%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $14 +$15 +107%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $8 +$2 +24%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $9 $0 +5%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $7 +$3 +48%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $4 +$1 +39%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $28 +$2 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $6 +$2 +40%
Türkiye to score first vs. Australia? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $85 +$105 +124%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $32 $0 -1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $137 −$27 -20%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $7 +$2 +26%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$6 +62%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $8 −$1 -8%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 +$9 +886%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 +$9 +864%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 8m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $15 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $9 1h
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 72¢ $7 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $15 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $7 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Spain 17¢ $1 1h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists BUY Yes 42¢ $3 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $17 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Spain 17¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $36 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $3 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Spain 17¢ $0 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 18¢ $2 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 16¢ $2 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $20 1h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $19 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.85 · official $142.85 (match) · 3500 history records