Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:41:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
32 0x3257…9f2d other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$189 (-77%) realized −$188 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -93% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -94% what you keep after slip
Net edge-94%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 116d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$93
world 32% −$79
finance 10% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-93.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 -78.8% -80.8% 0% 0% -80.8%
all 3 -92.9% -93.6% 0% 0% -89.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -93.6% 0% -89.9%
10% -94.2% 0% -90.8%
15% -94.8% 0% -91.7%
20% -95.3% 0% -92.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -79% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -93% · $-wt -89% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$65 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$188
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage116d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $116 −$92 -79%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 09 $79 −$79 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,600 (LOW) in March 2026? Mar 05 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 1h
Will France win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $25 41d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $116 42d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? BUY No 4¢ $30 109d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,600 (LOW) in March 2026? BUY No 55¢ $25 113d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? BUY No 27¢ $25 115d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? BUY No 42¢ $24 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.05 · official $24.05 (match) · 7 history records