Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:18:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x325a…3140 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$171 (-60%) realized −$166 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate15%2W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 528d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$169
other 40% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-40.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -33.8% -40.1% 15% 15% -70.7%
≤30d 13 -33.8% -40.1% 15% 15% -70.7%
≤90d 13 -33.8% -40.1% 15% 15% -70.7%
all 13 -33.8% -40.1% 15% 15% -70.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.1% 15% -70.7%
10% -45.8% 15% -73.5%
15% -51.1% 15% -76.1%
20% -55.9% 15% -78.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -68% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -68% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -65% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$23 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$166
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses2 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage528d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -96%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $10 +$14 +139%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $13 −$6 -42%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $11 −$9 -81%
Will DOGE hit 69¢ by Inauguration Day? Jun 23 $169 −$169 -100%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $10 +$45 +442%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 35¢ $25 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $13 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 6d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 6d
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 6d
Will DOGE hit 69¢ by Inauguration Day? BUY Yes 2¢ $39 527d
Will DOGE hit 69¢ by Inauguration Day? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 527d
Will DOGE hit 69¢ by Inauguration Day? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 527d
Will DOGE hit 69¢ by Inauguration Day? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 527d
Will DOGE hit 69¢ by Inauguration Day? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 527d
Will DOGE hit 69¢ by Inauguration Day? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 527d
Will DOGE hit 69¢ by Inauguration Day? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 527d
Will DOGE hit 69¢ by Inauguration Day? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 527d
Will DOGE hit 69¢ by Inauguration Day? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 527d
Will DOGE hit 69¢ by Inauguration Day? BUY Yes 3¢ $100 528d
Will DOGE hit 69¢ by Inauguration Day? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 528d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.13 · official $0.13 (match) · 34 history records