Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:38:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

32
0x325e…5308
weather · 1105 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$22 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open −$21
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$103
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses644 / 449
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions24
Markets (closed)1093 / 1105
History coverage45d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day54.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 24 History 1093 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days−$466
14 days−$531
30 days−$506
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jenny Costa Honeycutt be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? Yes 2¢ 42¢ $1 $20 +$19 (+1917%)
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes 46¢ 64¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+38%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Yes 41¢ 44¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14? Yes 42¢ 41¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? No 70¢ 81¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? No 88¢ 92¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? No 84¢ 80¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? No 66¢ 57¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-14%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 64¢ 19¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-70%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-31%)
Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top 50? Yes 80¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 10¢ 15¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+55%)
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.2m & 4.4m square kilometers? No 89¢ 91¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-32 House seat? No 80¢ 73¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Scott Schwab win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-48%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 68¢ 11¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-84%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 37¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 13? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 75°F or below on May 21? Yes 71¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Samuel Forstag be the Democratic nominee for MT-01? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in July 2026 (ET)? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in August 2026 (ET)? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX fail to complete an initial public offering by December 31 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$2 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +98%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 13 $4 $0 -4%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 12 $5 +$1 +28%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$4 -39%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +21%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$4 +76%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +158%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $5 +$3 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 11 $4 +$4 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$3 +30%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +33%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 +$5 +105%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 +$4 +77%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $5 +$4 +76%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$6 +62%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $5 +$3 +55%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 11 $5 −$4 -87%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +25%
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$15 +147%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 12? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 12? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 10 $5 +$2 +33%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $5 +$2 +41%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$15 +143%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 68% −$7
sports 30% −$23
other 1% +$26
crypto 1% −$13
finance 0% +$2
politics 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? SELL No 71¢ $4 12h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 84¢ $4 16h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 16h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 66¢ $4 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? BUY No 72¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? BUY No 70¢ $4 17h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 17h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $4 18h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 72¢ $4 18h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL No 91¢ $6 22h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 56¢ $5 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 53¢ $5 25h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 55¢ $5 26h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 81¢ $5 26h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 53¢ $5 27h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $5 29h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 57¢ $5 30h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 40h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 41h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 67¢ $3 41h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 186 -28.5% -35.3% 33% 33% -45.1%
≤30d 838 -12.8% -21.1% 51% 43% -20.7%
≤90d 1093 -1.1% -10.5% 59% 48% -12.5%
all 1093 -1.1% -10.5% 59% 48% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover54.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 48% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 33% -20.8%
15% -26.9% 23% -28.5%
20% -34.1% 17% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.92 · official $102.92 (match) · 3500 history records