Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:19:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x3262…5427 sports 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$69 (-5%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate18%4W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days−$93
14 days−$101
30 days−$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$101
crypto 2% −$9
other 0% +$4
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -7.0% -15.9% 0% 0% -16.5%
≤30d 10 -6.3% -15.2% 0% 0% -15.8%
≤90d 22 -24.8% -32.0% 18% 9% -16.1%
all 22 -24.8% -32.0% 18% 9% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.0% 9% -16.1%
10% -38.5% 9% -24.2%
15% -44.4% 5% -31.5%
20% -49.9% 5% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses4 / 18
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage77d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Nivelles: Kimmer Coppejans vs Louis Wessels Jun 29 $152 −$18 -12%
Set 2 Winner: Wild vs Coulibaly Jun 29 $101 −$3 -3%
Troyes: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Eliakim Coulibaly Jun 29 $101 −$2 -2%
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 29 $201 −$36 -18%
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Elina Svitolina Jun 24 $203 −$7 -3%
Fritz vs. Choinski: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $222 −$15 -7%
ITF Monastir: Ibrahim Snoussi vs Ali Habib Jun 24 $131 −$3 -2%
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Cash/Glasspool vs Cerundolo/Carabelli Jun 23 $101 −$9 -8%
Joint vs. Golubic: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 22 $110 −$4 -3%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Maya Joint vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 22 $132 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 16 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 16 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 16 $2 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -93%
Will "Cold Plunge" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan E Apr 16 $2 +$5 +273%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 13 $2 −$2 -93%
Will "Crazy" be said 15+ times during the first episode of the Joe Rog Apr 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Nivelles: Kimmer Coppejans vs Louis Wessels SELL Kimmer Coppejans 50¢ $134 1h
ITF Nivelles: Kimmer Coppejans vs Louis Wessels BUY Kimmer Coppejans 55¢ $152 5h
Set 2 Winner: Wild vs Coulibaly BUY Wild 51¢ $101 11h
Troyes: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Eliakim Coulibaly BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 50¢ $101 11h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 60¢ $201 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Elina Svitolina BUY Elina Svitolina 51¢ $203 5d
Fritz vs. Choinski: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 SELL Over 49¢ $207 5d
Fritz vs. Choinski: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $222 5d
ITF Monastir: Ibrahim Snoussi vs Ali Habib SELL Ali Habib 78¢ $128 5d
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Cash/Glasspool vs Cerundolo/Carabelli SELL Cash/Glasspool 73¢ $92 6d
ITF Monastir: Ibrahim Snoussi vs Ali Habib BUY Ali Habib 79¢ $131 6d
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Cash/Glasspool vs Cerundolo/Carabelli BUY Cash/Glasspool 79¢ $101 6d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Maya Joint vs Viktorija Golubic BUY Viktorija Golubic 51¢ $132 8d
Joint vs. Golubic: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 51¢ $110 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $4 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $4 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up $1 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down $1 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $2 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up $1 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 77d
Will "Crazy" be said 15+ times during the first episode of the Joe Rog BUY No 26¢ $2 77d
Will "Cold Plunge" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan E BUY Yes 26¢ $2 77d
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026? BUY No $1 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records