Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:02:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x3263…a3b7 politics 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 254d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$515 (-74%) realized −$498 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -72% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -74% what you keep after slip
Net edge-74%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%2W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 67% −$459
other 25% −$10
sports 6% −$38
crypto 2% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-74.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -62.6% -66.2% 12% 12% -15.6%
≤30d 16 -62.6% -66.2% 12% 12% -15.6%
≤90d 17 -64.8% -68.2% 12% 12% -32.2%
all 21 -71.5% -74.2% 10% 10% -80.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -74.2% 10% -80.9%
10% -76.7% 10% -82.7%
15% -78.9% 10% -84.4%
20% -81.0% 10% -85.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -72% · $-wt -79% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -79% → late -65% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$30 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$498
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses2 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions17
Markets (closed)21 / 38
History coverage254d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 16¢ 21¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+31%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 17¢ 8¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-51%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 21¢ 20¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 13¢ 4¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-72%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+100%)
Fight to Go the Distance? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will the fight be won by submission? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-24%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-55%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? No 13¢ 5¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-60%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.5–0.6%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-76%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score No 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-95%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-93%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $39 −$39 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? Jun 11 $60 +$68 +113%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Mar 22 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 05 $231 −$231 -100%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Nov 04 $16 −$16 -100%
Will José Antonio Kast win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean president Nov 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidentia Nov 04 $108 −$108 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 1¢ $2 1h
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 1h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $3 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $39 31h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $27 31h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 3d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.23 · official $41.23 (match) · 48 history records