Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:54:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x3265…cf6b sports 83 markets active 4h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$635 (-11%) realized −$627 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%37W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$131est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$412now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$131
14 days−$38
30 days−$470
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$674
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +12.1% +1.5% 70% 65% +3.9%
≤30d 71 -1.7% -11.1% 51% 45% -18.7%
≤90d 79 -6.2% -15.1% 47% 42% -21.0%
all 79 -6.2% -15.1% 47% 42% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 42% -21.0%
10% -23.2% 35% -28.6%
15% -30.6% 25% -35.5%
20% -37.4% 24% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$59 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$412
Realized−$627
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses37 / 42
Est. fees paid−$131
Open positions4
Markets (closed)79 / 83
History coverage37d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Sashi Esport 49¢ 55¢ $135 $151 +$15 (+11%)
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season T1 Academy 48¢ 42¢ $158 $137 −$21 (-14%)
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - United21 Group A Coalesce 50¢ 50¢ $122 $121 −$1 (-1%)
Valorant: NRG Academy vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage NRG Academy 40¢ 36¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Jun 22 $69 −$5 -7%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 3 Winner Jun 22 $50 +$20 +40%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $54 +$17 +33%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $20 −$20 -95%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $20 +$20 +95%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $42 +$11 +27%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 21 $2 $0 +15%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $21 −$21 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $25 +$6 +25%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $19 +$10 +52%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $20 +$16 +77%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $14 +$10 +72%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $18 +$10 +54%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $15 +$5 +33%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $98 +$59 +60%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $74 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $42 +$44 +104%
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea Jun 16 $75 +$17 +22%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 16 $47 −$47 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $111 +$135 +122%
Overwatch: HUNENG vs ReturnZ (BO3) - OCS China Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $63 −$63 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs Nexus (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Minkens finest vs Nexus (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Counter-Strike: Gaming By Legends vs Saab (BO1) - ROG Journey Group A Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 G Jun 12 $55 −$40 -73%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $81 +$4 +5%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $36 +$11 +31%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $72 −$72 -100%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 09 $147 +$3 +2%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 09 $12 +$2 +13%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs eternal premium (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Jun 08 $96 +$27 +28%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs STEP (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 08 $196 −$196 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Grou Jun 08 $196 +$204 +104%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 06 $87 +$250 +287%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Clo Jun 06 $10 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs Entropy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: S Jun 04 $60 −$60 -100%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southe Jun 04 $29 $0 -0%
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Gold vs Ghost Gaming GC (BO3) - VCT Game C Jun 03 $130 −$130 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GLYPH (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos Jun 03 $4 +$1 +18%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $44 −$1 -2%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Poor Rangers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Eu Jun 02 $153 +$47 +30%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Poor Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $118 −$16 -13%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North Ameri Jun 02 $20 +$30 +150%
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs eSuba (BO3) - Exort Series Main Stage Jun 01 $112 +$288 +257%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 49¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 49¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 49¢ $23 3h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 49¢ $18 3h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 49¢ $74 3h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 49¢ $13 3h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 49¢ $3 3h
Valorant: NRG Academy vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO3) - VCL North Ame BUY NRG Academy 40¢ $4 6h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Coalesce 50¢ $57 7h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Coalesce 50¢ $67 7h
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 SELL Pixel Lumina 22¢ $64 8h
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 BUY Pixel Lumina 23¢ $69 9h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 3 Winner SELL KOLESIE 70¢ $30 12h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 3 Winner SELL KOLESIE 70¢ $8 12h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 3 Winner SELL KOLESIE 70¢ $15 12h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 3 Winner SELL KOLESIE 70¢ $1 12h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 3 Winner SELL KOLESIE 70¢ $16 12h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 3 Winner BUY KOLESIE 50¢ $14 12h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 3 Winner BUY KOLESIE 50¢ $2 12h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 3 Winner BUY KOLESIE 50¢ $7 12h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 3 Winner BUY KOLESIE 50¢ $28 12h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner SELL KOLESIE 70¢ $71 12h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 52¢ $54 13h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA $1 29h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 20¢ $20 30h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner SELL TDK 40¢ $40 31h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 20¢ $20 31h
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso BUY T1 Academy 48¢ $161 33h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner SELL Infinite 16¢ $14 38h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner SELL Infinite 25¢ $3 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $412.07 · official $412.07 (match) · 255 history records