Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:57:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x3266…19b8 other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 362d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$8 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate26%10W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% $0
world 34% −$13
politics 19% +$3
crypto 5% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.7% -8.9% 33% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 9 -8.1% -16.9% 44% 11% -14.1%
≤90d 9 -8.1% -16.9% 44% 11% -14.1%
all 38 +0.9% -8.7% 26% 8% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 8% -10.7%
10% -17.4% 3% -19.3%
15% -25.4% 3% -27.1%
20% -32.7% 3% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

362d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses10 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage362d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 68¢ 64¢ $27 $25 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $27 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $52 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $25 +$1 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $22 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 +21%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 08 $4 $0 -4%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 08 $17 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 08 $23 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jul 07 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 4–11? Jul 07 $7 $0 -0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will Jaime Dunn win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 06 $4 $0 -10%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 06 $22 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jul 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 03 $24 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 03 $22 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 03 $3 +$3 +108%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? Jul 03 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jul 02 $2 $0 +14%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli finish second in the 2025 Drivers Champions Jun 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will another driver finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 22 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $27 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $21 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $5 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $13 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $14 7h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $27 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $27 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $27 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $27 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $10 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $16 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $26 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $30 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $30 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 80¢ $15 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 80¢ $11 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $25 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $25 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 0¢ $0 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 0¢ $0 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 31¢ $13 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $22 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $22 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 11d
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? SELL No 94¢ $2 343d
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? SELL No 94¢ $13 343d
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? SELL No 94¢ $5 343d
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 344d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.16 · official $25.16 (match) · 131 history records