Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:42:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
32 0x3267…da9e sports 781 markets active 9h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$226 (+4%) realized +$229 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate64%481W / 270L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days+$17
14 days+$13
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$100
other 47% +$160
world 1% −$10
politics 0% −$5
tech 0% −$4
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +10.0% -0.5% 67% 65% -7.1%
≤30d 184 -0.5% -10.0% 60% 59% -9.1%
≤90d 499 +5.1% -4.9% 64% 63% -6.1%
all 751 +4.8% -5.2% 64% 63% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 63% -5.7%
10% -14.3% 59% -14.7%
15% -22.5% 48% -23.0%
20% -30.1% 34% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized+$229
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses481 / 270
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions8
Markets (closed)751 / 781
History coverage157d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 751 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Spread: France (-1.5) Senegal 62¢ 60¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-4%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Under 63¢ 64¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Under 74¢ 74¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Iraq 65¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Under 71¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 257 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $11 +$8 +76%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 +$2 +31%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $6 +$5 +76%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $8 +$10 +120%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +81%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +119%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$10 +197%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $34 +$32 +92%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$12 +58%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +250%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +32%
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $41 +$15 +36%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $21 +$12 +55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? AND Will United States win on 2026-06- Jun 14 $4 +$2 +59%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $18 +$8 +44%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $31 −$31 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$7 +65%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $18 +$6 +31%
Paraguay to score first vs. United States? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +48%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $61 +$26 +43%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $30 +$1 +2%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 11 $8 +$4 +44%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 +$2 +32%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 11 $5 +$4 +88%
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) Jun 11 $10 +$5 +48%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $45 +$11 +25%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $45 −$45 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $15 −$15 -99%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $3 +$1 +42%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $20 +$3 +14%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $12 +$5 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $28 −$18 -64%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 10 $3 +$1 +35%
England leading at halftime? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +49%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $5 +$3 +60%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $4 +$4 +90%
Spread: China PR (-1.5) Jun 09 $22 +$7 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY 53¢ $2 9h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 46¢ $2 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $6 9h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 45¢ $3 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $5 9h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 65¢ $5 9h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 62¢ $5 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY 45¢ $3 9h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 62¢ $6 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $5 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $5 9h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) BUY 41¢ $6 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 49¢ $6 10h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY 45¢ $8 22h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 49¢ $2 22h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 48¢ $3 22h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY 56¢ $3 22h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY 56¢ $8 22h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 22h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY 45¢ $2 25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 25h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY 56¢ $3 25h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY 56¢ $3 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 25h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY 68¢ $4 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 25h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY 70¢ $5 25h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY 57¢ $2 25h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 76¢ $5 30h
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.28 · official $88.28 · 1702 history records