Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:49:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x3268…fed8 world 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 286d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate27%11W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$1
other 27% $0
politics 11% $0
economics 9% −$7
crypto 7% $0
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.4% -9.9% 17% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 27% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 27% 0% -9.7%
all 41 -2.7% -12.0% 27% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 0% -10.3%
10% -20.4% 0% -18.8%
15% -28.1% 0% -26.7%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

286d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses11 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage286d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 21 $26 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $26 $0 +1%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $15 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $27 −$1 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 02 $27 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $54 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $27 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $57 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $29 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $29 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $25 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $27 −$1 -2%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 21 $26 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Sep 21 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 19 $26 $0 -0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 19 $26 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 19 $26 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 18 $26 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 18 $58 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 18 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $120,000 and $122,000 on Septembe Sep 17 $26 $0 -1%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 16 $25 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 16 $21 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 15 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 15 $31 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 15 $32 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 13 $1 $0 -8%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Sep 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Sep 08 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 73¢ $26 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 73¢ $14 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 73¢ $12 5h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $26 44h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $26 45h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $15 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $15 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $26 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $27 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $29 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $29 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $29 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $29 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $27 18d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $27 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $27 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $27 19d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $10 21d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $17 21d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $27 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $9 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $18 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $27 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $13 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $13 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $27 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 134 history records