Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:21:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

32 0x3269…aa2a sports 9 markets active 2d ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$52 (+137%) realized +$54 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1310% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +1077% what you keep after slip

Net edge+1077%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$4per market

Trades / day9.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+1175.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+1309.9%	+1175.6%	100%	100%	+1175.6%
≤30d	1	+1309.9%	+1175.6%	100%	100%	+1175.6%
≤90d	1	+1309.9%	+1175.6%	100%	100%	+1175.6%
all	1	+1309.9%	+1175.6%	100%	100%	+1175.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+1175.6%	100%	+1175.6%
10%	+1053.6%	100%	+1053.6%
15%	+942.1%	100%	+942.1%
20%	+839.9%	100%	+839.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +1310% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1310% · $-wt +1310% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$54 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$31

Realized+$54

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions8

Markets (closed)1 / 9

History coverage1d

Avg bet$4

Trades / day9.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 8 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	Yes	8¢	8¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-6%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?	Yes	9¢	10¢	$4	$4	+$0 (+6%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	Yes	7¢	8¢	$4	$4	+$0 (+3%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Yes	20¢	20¢	$4	$4	−$0 (-2%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Yes	18¢	18¢	$4	$4	−$0 (-3%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?	Yes	17¢	16¢	$4	$4	−$0 (-3%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Yes	13¢	12¢	$4	$4	−$0 (-4%)
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	Yes	15¢	10¢	$4	$3	−$1 (-30%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$4	+$54	+1310%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$4	47h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	BUY Yes	7¢	$4	47h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	18¢	$4	47h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	7¢	$4	47h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$4	47h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$5	47h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	BUY Yes	15¢	$4	47h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?	BUY Yes	9¢	$4	47h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$4	47h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.36 · official $31.36 (match) · 10 history records