Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:33:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x326c…ef55 weather 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$61 (-3%) realized −$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate1%1W / 87L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day41.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$105
14 days−$105
30 days−$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -6.6% -15.5% 1% 0% -14.8%
≤30d 88 -6.6% -15.5% 1% 0% -14.8%
≤90d 88 -6.6% -15.5% 1% 0% -14.8%
all 88 -6.6% -15.5% 1% 0% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 0% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 0% -23.0%
15% -31.0% 0% -30.4%
20% -37.7% 0% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses1 / 87
Open positions0
Markets (closed)88 / 88
History coverage7d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day41.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 88 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $30 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? Jun 22 $50 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $20 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 22? Jun 22 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $30 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $29 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Jun 21 $64 −$10 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 21? Jun 21 $15 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 21 $34 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $31 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? Jun 21 $49 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 21? Jun 21 $6 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $28 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $22 −$4 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 21? Jun 20 $3 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? Jun 20 $26 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 20? Jun 20 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 20? Jun 20 $2 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20? Jun 20 $34 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 20? Jun 20 $4 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 20 $17 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 20 $3 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 20 $21 −$3 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $8 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $20 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $16 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? Jun 19 $18 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? Jun 19 $1 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? Jun 19 $15 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? Jun 19 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 20? Jun 19 $3 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 20? Jun 19 $68 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? Jun 19 $30 −$1 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? Jun 19 $18 −$15 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 20? Jun 19 $20 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 19 $18 −$4 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 19? Jun 19 $11 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 19? Jun 19 $27 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 19 $5 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 19 $52 −$10 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 19? Jun 19 $7 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $8 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? Jun 18 $38 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 19? Jun 18 $32 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 19? Jun 18 $20 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 19? Jun 18 $3 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 19? Jun 18 $17 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? Jun 18 $17 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? SELL No 61¢ $30 55m
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? BUY No 61¢ $30 55m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? SELL Yes 51¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? BUY Yes 51¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 22? SELL Yes 41¢ $20 5h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 22? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 5h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 22? SELL No 53¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 22? BUY No 52¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 22? SELL No 59¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 22? SELL No 60¢ $23 5h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 22? SELL No 60¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 60¢ $9 5h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 60¢ $17 5h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 22? SELL No 58¢ $28 5h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 60¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 58¢ $9 5h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 58¢ $20 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? SELL No 47¢ $23 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? BUY No 48¢ $24 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? SELL No 40¢ $3 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? BUY No 41¢ $4 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? SELL Yes 56¢ $27 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 56¢ $28 14h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 21? SELL Yes 29¢ $14 19h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 21? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 19h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 21? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 19h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL No 46¢ $17 20h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 47¢ $8 20h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 47¢ $9 20h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL No 50¢ $5 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 312 history records