Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:47:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x326d…3584 sports 529 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 6d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (516 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$872 (-8%) realized −$799 · open −$73
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate31%254W / 572L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day516.4pace
Fees−$159est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$414now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$859
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (516 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-52.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 826 -47.8% -52.8% 31% 23% -34.4%
≤30d 826 -47.8% -52.8% 31% 23% -34.4%
≤90d 826 -47.8% -52.8% 31% 23% -34.4%
all 826 -47.8% -52.8% 31% 23% -34.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover516.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -52.8% 23% -34.4%
10% ← realistic here -57.3% 17% -40.7%
15% -61.4% 13% -46.4%
20% -65.2% 8% -51.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -93% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$414
Realized−$799
Unrealized−$73
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses254 / 572
Est. fees paid−$159
Open positions24
Markets (closed)826 / 529
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day516.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 826 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dublin: Yi Zhou vs Nicolas Mejia Yi Zhou 54¢ 97¢ $35 $63 +$28 (+80%)
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Nick Hardt 38¢ 62¢ $32 $54 +$21 (+66%)
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Talia Gibson 57¢ 55¢ $36 $34 −$1 (-4%)
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Thiago Seyboth Wild 56¢ 38¢ $48 $32 −$16 (-33%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Kansas City Royals 47¢ 97¢ $14 $28 +$15 (+109%)
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Billy Harris 65¢ 100¢ $13 $20 +$7 (+54%)
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto Matias Soto 69¢ 100¢ $11 $16 +$5 (+45%)
ITF Luque: Camila Romero vs Luciana Moyano Luciana Moyano 53¢ 54¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic Sarah Rakotomanga 83¢ 100¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+20%)
ITF Luque: Camila Romero vs Luciana Moyano Camila Romero 44¢ 46¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner KOLESIE 65¢ 40¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-38%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ 60¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 63¢ 62¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Qinwen Zheng 40¢ 46¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+14%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Houston Astros 51¢ 54¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+5%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 73¢ 74¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Asuncion 2: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 64¢ 78¢ $6 $8 +$1 (+22%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 57¢ 56¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Detroit Tigers 46¢ 46¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Tampa Bay Rays 40¢ 40¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Carole Monnet Xiyu Wang 80¢ 82¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Asuncion 2: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Santiago Rodriguez Taverna 15¢ 22¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+47%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 58¢ 62¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 55¢ 55¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 73¢ 74¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 465 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Quimsa vs. Gimnasia Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Tyra Caterina Grant Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gen.G Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Circuit X Base Rec Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Circuit X Base Reci Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will AD Tarma win on 2026-05-30? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Jil Teichmann vs Petra Marcinko Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Valorant: SaD Esports vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Houston Dash win on 2026-05-20? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
AEK vs. Olympiacos B.C. Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Hashiras vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - Thunderp Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - BC Game Maste Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Birmingham: James McCabe vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-05-21? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Birmingham: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Kayla Day Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Lorenzo Gagliardo vs Anton Arzhankin Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-05-20? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-07? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Valorant: SaD Esports vs YFP Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Prostejov: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Lautaro Midon Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF Sumter: Malaika Rapolu vs Cadence Brace Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs GenOne (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Avaí FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Pyramids FC vs. Smouha SC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Club ABB win on 2026-05-30? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-30? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Makarska: Lucie Havlickova vs Yasmine Kabbaj Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Birmingham: Mika Stojsavljevic vs Elvina Kalieva Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Samsung Lions Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Foggia: Varvara Lepchenko vs Iryna Shymanovich Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Club Always Ready win on 2026-05-19? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Makarska: Noma Noha Akugue vs Sara Sorribes Tormo Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bratislava: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Emilio Nava Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Ilkley: Kayla Day vs Mary Stoiana Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Birmingham: Mackenzie McDonald vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Boston Legacy FC win on 2026-05-22? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Circuit X Base Rec Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Santiago Rodriguez Taverna 14¢ $0 2m
Asuncion 2: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Santiago Rodriguez Taverna 14¢ $1 2m
Asuncion 2: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Santiago Rodriguez Taverna 16¢ $2 4m
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Talia Gibson 57¢ $5 13m
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Talia Gibson 57¢ $11 13m
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Talia Gibson 54¢ $8 13m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 46¢ $3 18m
ITF Luque: Camila Romero vs Luciana Moyano BUY Camila Romero 44¢ $9 19m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 46¢ $4 19m
ITF Luque: Camila Romero vs Luciana Moyano BUY Luciana Moyano 50¢ $3 24m
ITF Luque: Camila Romero vs Luciana Moyano BUY Luciana Moyano 54¢ $8 26m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 51¢ $8 27m
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic BUY Sarah Rakotomanga 83¢ $8 27m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 61¢ $3 27m
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic BUY Sarah Rakotomanga 83¢ $0 27m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 61¢ $3 28m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 70¢ $8 29m
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Qinwen Zheng 40¢ $2 30m
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Qinwen Zheng 40¢ $6 31m
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Talia Gibson 55¢ $3 34m
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 45¢ $15 34m
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Talia Gibson 60¢ $2 35m
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Talia Gibson 60¢ $6 35m
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 62¢ $3 38m
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 72¢ $1 39m
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 72¢ $7 39m
Asuncion 2: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 64¢ $6 42m
Asuncion 2: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Juan Manuel La Serna SELL Juan Manuel La Serna 100¢ $64 44m
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 35¢ $2 46m
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 35¢ $1 46m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $414.13 · official $414.13 (match) · 3500 history records