Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:32:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x326f…802d crypto 156 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,963 (-38%) realized −$4,986 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%53W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$2,923now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$90
7 days−$125
14 days−$125
30 days−$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$5,736
crypto 21% +$364
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 40 -29.6% -36.3% 22% 20% -79.2%
all 148 +12.9% +2.1% 36% 35% -58.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.1% 35% -58.2%
10% -7.7% 32% -62.2%
15% -16.6% 30% -65.9%
20% -24.8% 27% -69.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -77% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$76 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$2,923
Realized−$4,986
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses53 / 95
Open positions8
Markets (closed)148 / 156
History coverage116d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $700 $738 +$38 (+5%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $600 $605 +$5 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $400 $403 +$3 (+1%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $400 $396 −$4 (-1%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $200 $192 −$8 (-4%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $200 $190 −$10 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 25 $84 −$30 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 25 $63 −$60 -95%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 22 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 19 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5,926 −$5,926 -100%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1,454 +$187 +13%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 16? May 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 14 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 14 $63 −$10 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 01 $5 +$22 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 29 $45 −$43 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 29 $37 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 29 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Apr 28 $11 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 28 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 28 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 28 $6 −$6 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Apr 25 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 24 $5 +$18 +363%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Apr 24 $5 +$5 +103%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Apr 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Apr 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 24 $10 +$30 +301%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Apr 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10AM ET Apr 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 19 $14 −$13 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 06 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 06 $7 +$10 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 06 $25 −$23 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Apr 05 $25 −$23 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 05 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Apr 05 $20 −$9 -46%
Solana Up or Down - April 4, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Apr 05 $10 +$33 +334%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Apr 05 $5 +$8 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Mar 26 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Mar 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Mar 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Mar 25 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Mar 25 $23 −$23 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Mar 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Mar 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Mar 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Mar 25 $10 +$47 +468%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $204 4h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $204 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 10h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 53¢ $406 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $203 10h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 10h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $205 21h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $410 21h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $308 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,922.96 · official $2,923.03 (match) · 637 history records