Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:46:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
32 0x3272…073d crypto 117 markets active 0h ago coverage 518d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-1%) realized −$13 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate68%76W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$77
14 days+$77
30 days+$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% +$12
politics 8% −$80
sports 8% +$59
other 8% +$20
world 2% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 +6.5% -3.6% 68% 49% -6.4%
≤30d 110 +6.5% -3.6% 68% 49% -6.4%
≤90d 110 +6.5% -3.6% 68% 49% -6.4%
all 112 +5.8% -4.3% 68% 49% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 49% -9.6%
10% -13.4% 34% -18.3%
15% -21.8% 26% -26.2%
20% -29.5% 14% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

518d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses76 / 36
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)112 / 117
History coverage518d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 56¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 23 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 23 $16 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$9 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $37 +$38 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $86 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$4 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 23 $56 +$14 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 23 $7 +$8 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $16 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$22 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 23 $75 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $121 +$9 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $92 +$20 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$8 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 23 $103 −$47 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 23 $57 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 23 $105 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 23 $126 −$16 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 23 $16 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$3 -60%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 −$1 -29%
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $5 −$1 -21%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$15 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$4 -86%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 +$3 +50%
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? Jun 22 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$4 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $9 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $111 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $7 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $27 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $6 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $6 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $9 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $6 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 40m
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Wi BUY 53¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $19 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 46m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.06 · official $24.87 · 393 history records