Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:38:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

32
0x3275…2f2c
crypto · 189 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$9 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$31 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$35
Realized−$31
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses104 / 64
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions21
Markets (closed)168 / 189
History coverage36d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 21 History 168 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$1
14 days+$10
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 53¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 56¢ 24¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-57%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 96¢ 96¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting? Yes 72¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 55¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Yes 63¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? Yes 58¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes 15¢ 9¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes 77¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-45%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes 36¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-46%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? No 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$6 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$5 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 +15%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -26%
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 13 $8 −$3 -32%
Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 Jun 13 $7 −$1 -11%
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? Jun 13 $8 −$1 -13%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $8 $0 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $8 +$1 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 12 $3 $0 +7%
Will Trump say "Georgia" 10+ times during Tele-Rallies? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +25%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -12%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $1 $0 +11%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 11 $1 $0 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $8 $0 -0%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $1 $0 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +32%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $1 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $7 +$1 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 51% −$29
world 25% +$31
other 15% −$42
politics 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
weather 2% +$2
sports 1% $0
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? SELL Down 42¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 40¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? SELL Up 60¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 66¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 31m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -1.3% -10.7% 60% 33% -9.3%
≤30d 141 +1.4% -8.2% 62% 38% -8.6%
≤90d 168 +3.9% -6.0% 62% 38% -13.3%
all 168 +3.9% -6.0% 62% 38% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 38% -13.3%
10% -15.0% 24% -21.6%
15% -23.2% 20% -29.2%
20% -30.7% 13% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.38 · official $35.26 (match) · 520 history records