Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:22:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
32 0x3276…f783 crypto 11 markets active 6d ago coverage 56d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-3%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 56d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.6% -9.0% 67% 33% -15.6%
≤30d 9 +0.6% -9.0% 67% 33% -15.6%
≤90d 11 -5.6% -14.6% 64% 36% -13.7%
all 11 -5.6% -14.6% 64% 36% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 36% -13.7%
10% -22.8% 27% -21.9%
15% -30.2% 9% -29.5%
20% -37.1% 9% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage56d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $17 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$3 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Apr 17 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 17 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $14 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records