Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:27:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
32 0x3278…93b4 world 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 524d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate38%27W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$8
politics 30% +$10
other 16% $0
sports 11% +$13
economics 6% $0
weather 1% −$21
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +5.3% -4.7% 45% 9% -10.2%
≤30d 25 +3.2% -6.7% 44% 8% -8.9%
≤90d 66 +1.0% -8.6% 35% 3% -9.3%
all 72 +4.5% -5.4% 38% 8% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 8% -9.3%
10% -14.5% 8% -17.9%
15% -22.7% 7% -25.9%
20% -30.3% 6% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

524d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses27 / 45
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)72 / 72
History coverage524d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 72 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $52 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $11 +$1 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $54 −$5 -9%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $104 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $39 −$1 -4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $94 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $26 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $40 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 11 $55 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $61 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $54 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $49 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $56 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $6 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $25 +$1 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $145 +$4 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $29 +$7 +24%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $15 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $10 −$1 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 19 $18 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 18 $56 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 18 $19 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $47 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $64 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $31 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $43 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $5 $0 +2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $46 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $2 $0 -9%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $47 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $45 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $115 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $14 $0 -1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $149 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 14 $100 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 13 $43 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 12 $42 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $93 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 12 $46 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $3 $0 -2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $59 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $117 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 09 $52 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $52 1h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $32 4h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $20 4h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $9 10h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 14h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 17h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 20h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 29¢ $11 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 29¢ $38 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 32¢ $54 25h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $16 29h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $38 29h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $53 33h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $26 38h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $28 39h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $41 47h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $3 47h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $7 47h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $8 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $43 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $24 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $24 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $20 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $42 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $62 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $2 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.82 · official $0.00 (match) · 333 history records