Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:42:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
32 0x3278…52be crypto 1384 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 82d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$166 (+1%) realized +$166 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate67%929W / 455L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day32.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$221
7 days+$307
14 days+$294
30 days+$219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 156 +1.9% -7.8% 100% 1% -8.0%
≤30d 379 +139.1% +116.3% 77% 28% -8.3%
≤90d 1384 +36.7% +23.7% 67% 31% -9.3%
all 1384 +36.7% +23.7% 67% 31% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +23.7% 31% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here +11.8% 17% -18.0%
15% +1.0% 10% -25.9%
20% -8.9% 8% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +70% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$166
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses929 / 455
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1384 / 1384
History coverage82d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day32.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1384 Trades
no open positions (131 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 21 $279 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $346 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 21 $343 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $340 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $337 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $337 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $331 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $328 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 21 $324 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 21 $208 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 21 $319 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 21 $316 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $316 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 21 $310 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 21 $310 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $307 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $302 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $302 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 20 $295 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 20 $292 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 20 $290 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 20 $287 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 20 $284 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $282 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $279 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 20 $276 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $274 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $271 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 20 $269 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $268 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $265 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $168 +$48 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $212 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $210 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $208 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $206 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $204 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $194 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $190 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $180 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $178 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $176 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $175 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 20 $173 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 20 $171 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $173 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $171 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $166 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $157 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $279 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $346 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $343 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $340 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $337 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $337 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $331 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $328 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $324 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $208 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $319 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $316 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $316 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $310 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $310 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $307 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $302 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $302 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $295 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $292 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $290 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $287 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $284 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $282 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $279 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $276 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $274 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $271 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $269 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.46 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records