Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:55:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
32 0x327a…99bf other 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 234d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3,989 (-3%) realized −$3,960 · open −$29
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate58%11W / 8L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,797per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$261est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$101
7 days−$141
14 days−$141
30 days−$20,036
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$844
world 38% +$18,700
sports 16% −$20,300
culture 6% −$1,689
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+34.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +148.3% +124.7% 43% 43% -22.4%
≤30d 12 +94.7% +76.1% 58% 50% -83.7%
≤90d 13 +90.2% +72.1% 62% 54% -11.1%
all 19 +48.1% +34.0% 58% 42% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +34.0% 42% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here +21.2% 37% -20.7%
15% +9.5% 26% -28.4%
20% -1.3% 21% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$3,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late +106% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2,143 vs −$3,461 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized−$3,960
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$261
Open positions16
Markets (closed)19 / 35
History coverage234d
Avg bet$3,797
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $35 −$5 (-12%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 26¢ $35 $13 −$22 (-62%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $7 −$1 (-8%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+40%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$55 +1329%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $503 +$130 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $362 −$357 -99%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $87 +$73 +83%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 19 $20,480 −$20,289 -99%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 18 $2,016 +$219 +11%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 17 $51 +$56 +109%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 17 $101 +$74 +73%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 17 $1,002 +$45 +4%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $50,881 +$18,700 +37%
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards Mar 16 $100 +$9 +9%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $4,987 +$1,302 +26%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-09? Jan 09 $2,034 −$2,000 -98%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-12-09? Dec 09 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Nov 03 $45,000 +$2,916 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 1h
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $62 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $10 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $35 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $103 23h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $259 23h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 79¢ $503 24h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $4 39h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 39h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 55¢ $28 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $41 6d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 50¢ $20 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $20 6d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 52¢ $8 27d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 52¢ $11 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $205.72 · official $205.75 (match) · 195 history records