Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:28:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x327a…275a world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate22%9W / 31L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% $0
other 18% $0
politics 14% $0
sports 6% $0
culture 5% $0
crypto 5% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 17% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 24% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 24% 0% -9.5%
all 40 -0.2% -9.7% 22% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses9 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage273d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $37 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $4 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $69 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $67 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $3 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $38 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $106 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $10 $0 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $53 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $31 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $46 +$1 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $2 $0 -5%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Oct 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 202 Sep 30 $28 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 30 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $22 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 29 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $5 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 29 $26 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 27 $28 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Sep 27 $27 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 26 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 25 $28 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $36 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $36 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $37 39h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $37 39h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $33 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $33 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 72¢ $36 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 72¢ $36 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $29 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $29 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $33 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 61¢ $33 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $25 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $8 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $34 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $33 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $33 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $37 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $19 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $18 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 12d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 12d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 12d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $36 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 12d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $10 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 161 history records