Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:55:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x327b…ffb5 crypto 511 markets active 1h ago coverage 378d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,653 (-9%) realized −$2,291 · open −$362
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate53%270W / 239L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1,497now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$422
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$694
politics 9% −$841
world 9% −$465
other 5% −$226
sports 2% −$218
weather 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 17 -8.5% -17.2% 47% 47% -64.3%
all 509 -1.6% -11.0% 53% 46% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 46% -16.5%
10% -19.5% 41% -24.5%
15% -27.3% 37% -31.8%
20% -34.4% 32% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -61% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$24 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

378d coverage
Net worth$1,497
Realized−$2,291
Unrealized−$362
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses270 / 239
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)509 / 511
History coverage378d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 509 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $1,610 $1,228 −$382 (-24%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 13¢ 14¢ $249 $269 +$19 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 161 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 30 $425 −$422 -99%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 16 $33 −$7 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 11 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 22 $10 +$6 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 22 $20 +$15 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 22 $20 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 22 $20 +$27 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 22 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 22 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 22 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 22 $10 +$5 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 22 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 22 $20 +$18 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Apr 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 15 $47 −$47 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $15 −$15 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026? Feb 27 $128 −$128 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 27 $130 −$2 -2%
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? Feb 27 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Feb 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Feb 27 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Feb 27 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Feb 27 $7 +$6 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Feb 27 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Feb 27 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Feb 27 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Feb 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 27 $20 −$3 -15%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 27 $25 −$2 -7%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Feb 27 $140 −$50 -36%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 19 $709 −$709 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 11 $838 +$257 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jan 28 $160 −$105 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jan 28 $80 −$33 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jan 28 $40 −$28 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jan 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jan 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jan 28 $20 +$16 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jan 28 $20 +$9 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jan 28 $20 +$19 +97%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 28 $132 +$41 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 3PM ET Jan 27 $20 +$20 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 4PM ET Jan 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 2PM ET Jan 26 $20 −$15 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 1PM ET Jan 26 $20 +$21 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 12PM ET Jan 26 $20 +$18 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 8AM ET Jan 26 $17 +$14 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 13¢ $204 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 11¢ $54 2d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 11¢ $207 2d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 13¢ $63 4d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 13¢ $414 4d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid BUY Yes 77¢ $425 21d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 38¢ $84 21d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 32¢ $199 24d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 42¢ $27 35d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 16¢ $26 35d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 19¢ $33 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 38d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 40¢ $205 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $20 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $20 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $20 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $20 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 59d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 36¢ $100 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,496.84 · official $1,496.84 (match) · 1312 history records