Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:26:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
32 0x327d…7357 other 14 markets active 12h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+4%) realized +$0 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$3
crypto 9% $0
sports 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-40.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -34.2% -40.4% 43% 43% -9.0%
≤30d 7 -34.2% -40.4% 43% 43% -9.0%
≤90d 7 -34.2% -40.4% 43% 43% -9.0%
all 7 -34.2% -40.4% 43% 43% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.4% 43% -9.0%
10% -46.1% 29% -17.7%
15% -51.3% 29% -25.6%
20% -56.1% 14% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)7 / 14
History coverage4d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 27¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 60¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+67%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-10%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 34h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 4d
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 4d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 4d
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.71 · official $34.71 (match) · 17 history records