Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:48:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x3286…5aa4 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$945 (-30%) realized −$499 · open −$446
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%4W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day80.0pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$1,008
sports 28% −$416
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-47.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -41.9% -47.4% 22% 22% -42.7%
≤30d 18 -41.9% -47.4% 22% 22% -42.7%
≤90d 18 -41.9% -47.4% 22% 22% -42.7%
all 18 -41.9% -47.4% 22% 22% -42.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -47.4% 22% -42.7%
10% ← realistic here -52.5% 22% -48.2%
15% -57.1% 17% -53.2%
20% -61.3% 17% -57.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$137 vs −$109 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$499
Unrealized−$446
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses4 / 14
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day80.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $416 $19 −$397 (-95%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $46 +$42 +91%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $219 −$198 -91%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $208 +$47 +23%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $154 −$109 -70%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $72 −$72 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $617 −$366 -59%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $154 −$101 -66%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $56 −$45 -79%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $53 −$33 -63%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $205 −$200 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $107 −$5 -5%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $202 −$200 -99%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $93 −$91 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $82 −$80 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $154 +$293 +190%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $226 +$168 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $87 57m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $46 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 2¢ $48 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 3¢ $20 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 2¢ $100 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 1¢ $20 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $255 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $47 3h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 2¢ $46 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $161 3h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $219 5h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 7¢ $154 5h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 3¢ $250 5h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 4¢ $53 6h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 South Africa? SELL Yes 1¢ $12 6h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 6h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 2 South Africa? SELL Yes 1¢ $19 6h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 6h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 7¢ $206 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 11¢ $21 7h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 12¢ $21 7h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 7h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 18¢ $51 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.45 · official $19.45 (match) · 92 history records