Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
32 0x3287…25f7 sports 95 markets active 3h ago coverage 318d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$2,524 (+6%) realized +$2,538 · open −$14
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate57%50W / 37L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$446per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$290now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$180
14 days+$175
30 days+$281
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$2,228
culture 6% +$97
sports 5% +$227
politics 4% +$12
tech 0% +$9
crypto 0% −$6
world 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +13.8% +3.0% 67% 56% +11.1%
≤30d 21 +8.5% -1.9% 62% 52% +18.5%
≤90d 28 +17.1% +6.0% 68% 50% +15.8%
all 87 +20.9% +9.4% 57% 34% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.4% 34% -4.0%
10% -1.1% 30% -13.2%
15% -10.6% 21% -21.6%
20% -19.4% 17% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +35% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$11 · ×5.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.15 per $1 lost it wins $7.15
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

318d coverage
Net worth$290
Realized+$2,538
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses50 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions8
Markets (closed)87 / 95
History coverage318d
Avg bet$446
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 13¢ 56¢ $30 $125 +$95 (+317%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 95¢ 98¢ $104 $107 +$3 (+3%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 87¢ 93¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 50¢ 14¢ $50 $14 −$36 (-71%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 24¢ $70 $7 −$64 (-91%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 16¢ $15 $2 −$13 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $136 +$34 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $18 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$7 -68%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$4 -94%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +325%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $10 +$3 +29%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $524 +$149 +28%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $97 +$124 +129%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 18 $30 +$3 +10%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026? May 16 $18 +$2 +10%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 13 $5 $0 +4%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $23 −$13 -54%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 06 $5 +$1 +11%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 06 $1 +$3 +291%
Celtics vs. Spurs Mar 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the Detroit Pistons finish with the best record in the NBA? Mar 10 $20 −$13 -68%
Warriors vs. Thunder Mar 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Clippers vs. Grizzlies Mar 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 07 $70 −$42 -60%
Pistons vs. Spurs Mar 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Kings vs. Spurs Feb 22 $5 −$3 -68%
Grizzlies vs. Heat Feb 22 $10 −$9 -92%
Clippers vs. Lakers Feb 21 $15 +$4 +29%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open? Feb 02 $50 +$100 +203%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101? Jan 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Lakers vs. Trail Blazers Jan 18 $10 +$1 +7%
Bulls vs. Nets Jan 17 $2 +$2 +80%
Clippers vs. Raptors Jan 17 $11 +$16 +140%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Jan 13 $50 −$21 -43%
Rockets vs. Trail Blazers Jan 11 $5 +$11 +212%
Clippers vs. Pistons Jan 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Mavericks vs. Bulls Jan 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Hawks vs. Nuggets Jan 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Thunder vs. Grizzlies Jan 10 $2 +$28 +1420%
Kings vs. Warriors Jan 10 $3 −$3 -100%
76ers vs. Magic Jan 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 74¢ $5 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $289.84 · official $289.84 (match) · 261 history records