Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:21:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
32 0x328a…a56d sports 532 markets active 1h ago coverage 692d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$391 (-0%) realized −$392 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate47%243W / 270L
Whale WR1%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$186per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$655now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$170
7 days−$262
14 days−$183
30 days−$539
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$423
other 7% +$260
crypto 3% −$105
finance 2% −$121
politics 0% +$9
world 0% −$54
economics 0% +$19
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +22.0% +10.4% 47% 42% -27.4%
≤30d 43 +0.2% -9.4% 51% 33% -29.0%
≤90d 195 -4.2% -13.3% 50% 33% -10.5%
all 513 -2.8% -12.1% 47% 38% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 38% -9.8%
10% -20.5% 28% -18.4%
15% -28.2% 17% -26.3%
20% -35.2% 12% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 1% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

692d coverage
Net worth$655
Realized−$392
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses243 / 270
Whale WR (big bets)1%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions11
Markets (closed)513 / 532
History coverage692d
Avg bet$186
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 513 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 62¢ $400 $397 −$3 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 88¢ 86¢ $177 $174 −$3 (-2%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $24 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 18¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+74%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+26%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 24¢ $3 $5 +$1 (+38%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Jérémy Doku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 56¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Will Alexander Sørloth score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 52¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iñaki Williams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $5 −$2 -31%
Will Raphinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $5 −$3 -64%
Will Endrick score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $5 $0 -1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $202 +$154 +76%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $13 −$12 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $117 +$34 +29%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $38 +$168 +442%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina Jun 17 $1 +$2 +171%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $142 +$56 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -53%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $406 −$400 -98%
Will Virgil van Dijk score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3 +$8 +307%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $117 −$116 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $61 +$46 +76%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? Jun 13 $11 +$2 +20%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 AND United States vs. Parag Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$56 +109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $51 +$21 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $4 $0 +2%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $69 −$68 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $100 −$100 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $116 −$7 -6%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? Jun 03 $10 −$3 -27%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? Jun 03 $10 −$3 -30%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 31 $78 +$12 +16%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $31 −$30 -98%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 0.5 May 27 $10 +$1 +8%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $517 −$121 -23%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 25 $16 +$6 +35%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 0.5 May 24 $10 +$1 +6%
Getafe CF vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 0.5 May 23 $5 +$1 +17%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 0.5 May 23 $5 $0 +7%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 0.5 May 23 $5 $0 +5%
ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 0.5 May 22 $5 $0 +5%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $10 $0 +0%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 0.5 May 20 $9 +$1 +7%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 0.5 May 19 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $3 −$3 -99%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 19 $188 $0 -0%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $9 +$1 +10%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 0.5 May 17 $10 $0 +5%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 0.5 May 15 $5 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $202 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $101 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $101 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 88¢ $178 2h
Will Iñaki Williams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND W BUY 11¢ $1 4h
Will Iñaki Williams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 4h
Will Raphinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 4h
Will Endrick score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 61¢ $5 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $13 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $202 27h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Un BUY 20¢ $1 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $117 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 AND Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1 BUY 19¢ $1 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Uzbek BUY 19¢ $1 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $38 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina BUY 36¢ $1 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $36 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $142 4d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 5d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 AND IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 BUY 30¢ $1 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $406 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 AND Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND Cô BUY 34¢ $1 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $59 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $59 6d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 AND Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 39¢ $2 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $5 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $3 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $58 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $655.19 · official $655.20 (match) · 1505 history records