Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:04:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
32 0x328c…6715 sports 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$2 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%22W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$5
other 36% −$1
crypto 6% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -7.3% -16.1% 52% 39% -10.7%
≤30d 30 -6.8% -15.7% 57% 47% -8.5%
≤90d 44 -15.8% -23.9% 50% 43% -11.6%
all 44 -15.8% -23.9% 50% 43% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 43% -11.6%
10% -31.1% 34% -20.0%
15% -37.8% 18% -27.7%
20% -43.9% 14% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses22 / 22
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage33d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Corners Over 60¢ 50¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $119 +$23 +20%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 −$1 -4%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $67 −$2 -3%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou Jun 17 $10 −$3 -27%
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $30 −$19 -61%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $26 +$9 +37%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $32 +$10 +32%
Will Florian Wirtz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $20 −$5 -24%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $20 −$3 -17%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $19 +$1 +4%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $20 −$2 -8%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $34 −$34 -99%
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $48 +$11 +23%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $37 +$10 +28%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $39 −$1 -3%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $30 +$9 +29%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $23 +$7 +30%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 12 $15 +$8 +53%
Will Scott McTominay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $41 +$2 +4%
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 1.5 Jun 03 $4 −$4 -99%
Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 02 $3 +$1 +34%
Croatia vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $8 −$8 -99%
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 01 $9 +$3 +33%
Kosice: Martin Krumich vs Kilian Feldbausch May 31 $44 +$5 +11%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $26 +$18 +70%
Will Bayern Munich win DFB-Pokal? May 23 $22 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 17 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 17 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 17 $3 +$3 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 17 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 17 $5 +$5 +93%
Will France be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $19 −$8 -43%
Will Germany be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $56 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $54 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 60¢ $30 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 61¢ $29 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $30 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $86 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $64 20h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 71¢ $65 20h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $67 20h
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No $0 20h
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou SELL Yes 39¢ $7 20h
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $12 20h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $35 20h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $30 32h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $32 2d
Will Florian Wirtz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 57¢ $15 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 42¢ $17 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $20 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 77¢ $20 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $19 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $19 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $34 3d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 3d
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No $1 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 93¢ $59 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $48 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 73¢ $48 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $37 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 SELL Over 77¢ $38 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $39 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.75 · official $35.75 · 97 history records