Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:08:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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32 0x328c…cbbc crypto 318 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d only
✗ bot/MM pace (122 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,961 (-20%) realized −$5,733 · open −$228
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate34%229W / 453L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day122.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$8,881now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,392
7 days−$6,270
14 days−$6,122
30 days−$5,857
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$953
other 1% −$433
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (122 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 523 +43.9% +30.2% 27% 18% -47.4%
≤30d 682 +38.1% +25.0% 34% 21% -26.8%
≤90d 682 +38.1% +25.0% 34% 21% -26.8%
all 682 +38.1% +25.0% 34% 21% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover122.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +25.0% 21% -26.8%
10% ← realistic here +13.0% 14% -33.8%
15% +2.1% 11% -40.2%
20% -7.9% 11% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late +86% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$21 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$8,881
Realized−$5,733
Unrealized−$228
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses229 / 453
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Open positions63
Markets (closed)682 / 318
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$95
Trades / day122.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 63 History 682 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 20? No 86¢ 94¢ $734 $797 +$62 (+8%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 21? No 88¢ 93¢ $748 $790 +$42 (+6%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $621 $638 +$17 (+3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 17? No 89¢ 99¢ $529 $593 +$64 (+12%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 19? No 86¢ 95¢ $506 $561 +$55 (+11%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $377 $404 +$27 (+7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 21? No 83¢ 84¢ $341 $343 +$3 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? No 80¢ 84¢ $308 $320 +$12 (+4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $287 $298 +$10 (+4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 16? No 84¢ 99¢ $244 $288 +$45 (+18%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 17? No 85¢ 98¢ $220 $254 +$33 (+15%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 19? No 92¢ 99¢ $232 $249 +$17 (+7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 16? No 86¢ 99¢ $200 $230 +$30 (+15%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 20? Yes 95¢ 98¢ $195 $201 +$7 (+3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? No 76¢ 66¢ $228 $199 −$29 (-13%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 18? No 83¢ 84¢ $195 $196 +$1 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 20? No 93¢ 98¢ $186 $196 +$10 (+5%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 19? No 82¢ 84¢ $182 $186 +$4 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Yes 84¢ 94¢ $160 $180 +$20 (+13%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 18? No 83¢ 96¢ $142 $165 +$23 (+16%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? No 77¢ 55¢ $232 $164 −$69 (-30%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Yes 78¢ 92¢ $136 $160 +$24 (+18%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? No 78¢ 56¢ $215 $155 −$60 (-28%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? No 84¢ 60¢ $172 $122 −$49 (-29%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? No 87¢ 64¢ $143 $105 −$37 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 437 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 17? Jun 15 $0 −$58 -18992%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 10? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 1? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +148%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on April 10? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 8? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 2? Jun 15 $0 +$6 +2424%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on April 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -106%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on April 4? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on April 1? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on April 4? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -116%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 21? Jun 15 $0 $0 +91%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 11? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +251%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 1? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 8? Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 7? Jun 15 $0 −$1 -270%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 30? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 8? Jun 15 $0 $0 -78%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 16? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 2? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 19? Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 4? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on April 18? Jun 15 $1 −$2 -127%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 3? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -90%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 30? Jun 15 $66 −$66 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $84,000 on April 21? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on April 1? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -101%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 24? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on May 7? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -103%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 6? Jun 15 $1 +$6 +531%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 2? Jun 15 $14 −$6 -43%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in February? Jun 15 $400 −$400 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on April 9? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -125%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on March 31? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -104%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 10? Jun 15 $126 −$126 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 9? Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 25? Jun 15 $0 $0 -26%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on April 8? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 1? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 28? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 5? Jun 15 $0 +$2 +3445%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 26? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $70,000 on May 10? Jun 15 $0 $0 -3719%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 February 9-15? Jun 15 $999 −$738 -74%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 9? Jun 15 $39 +$5 +12%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on April 5? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on February 2 Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 2 Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on April 4? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on April 19? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 21? BUY No 75¢ $8 5m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 20? BUY No 92¢ $5 6m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $58 17m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 84¢ $21 29m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $30 40m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $97 42m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $40 42m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 21? BUY No 93¢ $51 43m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $99 43m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $5 43m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $26 43m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 21? BUY No 93¢ $36 44m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 21? BUY No 84¢ $37 52m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 83¢ $54 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 96¢ $39 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 21? BUY No 84¢ $42 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $9 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $9 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $9 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $9 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $9 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 21? BUY No 93¢ $46 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? BUY No 92¢ $9 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $18 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 86¢ $4 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? SELL No 61¢ $4 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 85¢ $4 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 83¢ $50 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,881.02 · official $8,877.52 (match) · 3500 history records