Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:46:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x328e…1e35 crypto 121 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$804 (-8%) realized −$822 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate70%84W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$165
7 days+$165
14 days−$239
30 days−$784
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$762
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +33.5% +20.8% 86% 71% +16.5%
≤30d 120 -6.6% -15.5% 70% 48% -15.0%
≤90d 120 -6.6% -15.5% 70% 48% -15.0%
all 120 -6.6% -15.5% 70% 48% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 48% -15.0%
10% -23.6% 28% -23.1%
15% -30.9% 19% -30.5%
20% -37.7% 12% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$67 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$822
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses84 / 36
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)120 / 121
History coverage15d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Up 0¢ 36¢ $0 $18 +$18 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $93 +$55 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $93 +$76 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $93 +$46 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $47 +$41 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $46 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $102 −$65 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 02 $251 −$243 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 02 $133 +$119 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 02 $204 −$186 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 02 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 02 $50 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 02 $252 −$118 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 02 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 02 $251 +$15 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 02 $51 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 02 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 02 $51 −$38 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 02 $254 +$71 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 02 $51 −$48 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 02 $251 +$12 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 02 $254 +$69 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 02 $251 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 02 $251 −$17 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 02 $253 +$45 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 02 $254 +$63 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 02 $101 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 02 $105 +$19 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 02 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 02 $202 +$31 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 02 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 02 $258 −$224 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 02 $251 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 02 $253 +$45 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 02 $276 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 02 $254 +$72 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 02 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 02 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 02 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 02 $126 −$47 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 02 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 02 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 02 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 02 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 02 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 02 $26 −$15 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 02 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 02 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 02 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 02 $25 +$3 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $148 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $93 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $169 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $93 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $139 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $93 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $88 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $47 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $53 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $46 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $37 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $251 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $133 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $18 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $204 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $50 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $134 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $252 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $51 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $251 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $51 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $52 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $12 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $51 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $254 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.55 · official $24.28 · 268 history records