Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:49:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x3290…ab23 crypto 753 markets active 0h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$33 (+0%) realized −$135 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate84%628W / 124L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days−$32
14 days−$32
30 days−$190
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$135
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 144 -0.1% -9.6% 92% 2% -10.5%
≤30d 447 -0.7% -10.1% 83% 13% -10.5%
≤90d 752 +0.0% -9.5% 84% 11% -9.9%
all 752 +0.0% -9.5% 84% 11% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 11% -9.9%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$11 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$135
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses628 / 124
Open positions1
Markets (closed)752 / 753
History coverage60d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 752 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Down 98¢ 98¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $23 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $23 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $23 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $22 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $29 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$6 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $22 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $22 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $22 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $23 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $22 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $22 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $22 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$21 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $13 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $12 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $7 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $23 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $23 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $23 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $29 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $22 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $22 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.70 · official $10.98 (match) · 1593 history records