Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:08:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x3290…1c5e other 256 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$76 (-0%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%7W / 248L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$21
14 days−$28
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$42
sports 23% −$19
politics 11% +$4
culture 8% −$11
economics 7% −$10
crypto 4% −$6
world 3% −$1
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 63 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 178 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 255 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×5.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses7 / 248
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)255 / 256
History coverage138d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 255 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $133 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $823 −$2 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $297 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $63 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $387 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $262 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $890 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $316 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $240 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $64 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $226 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $65 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $301 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $220 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $681 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $643 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $438 −$1 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $322 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $368 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $256 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $405 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $239 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $305 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $337 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $271 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $677 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $837 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $207 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $136 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $396 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $603 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $271 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $347 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $151 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $173 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $251 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $70 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $903 −$2 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $320 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $906 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $392 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $240 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $88 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $200 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $239 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 50m
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $63 1h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 2h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $63 4h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $63 5h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 17h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $63 18h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $63 20h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $63 21h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $63 28h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $63 29h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 38h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $63 39h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $63 45h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $64 47h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $64 47h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $64 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $64 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $64 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $64 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $64 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $64 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $64 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.57 · official $62.57 (match) · 1384 history records