Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:36:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x3295…58ea other 249 markets active 0h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$78 (-0%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 237L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$17
14 days−$25
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$42
sports 24% −$20
politics 7% −$6
crypto 7% −$7
economics 5% −$5
culture 5% −$4
world 2% −$3
tech 1% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 65 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 178 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 248 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 237
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)248 / 249
History coverage135d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $61 $61 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $421 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $396 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $422 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $590 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $217 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $62 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 17 $337 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $468 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $249 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $428 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $286 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $283 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $741 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $273 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $291 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $423 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $64 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $387 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $243 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $260 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $730 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $487 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $323 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $252 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $66 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $797 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $382 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $357 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $67 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $67 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $216 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $216 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 07 $276 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $173 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 07 $220 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $427 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $222 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $374 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $405 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $220 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $230 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $215 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $354 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $59 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $61 5m
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $61 53m
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $61 1h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 4h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 5h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $62 22h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $62 23h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $62 26h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $62 28h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $62 29h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $62 30h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $62 31h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $62 33h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $62 44h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $62 46h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $62 47h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $62 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $62 2d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $63 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $63 3d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 3d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $63 3d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $63 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $63 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $63 3d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $63 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.19 · official $61.19 (match) · 1341 history records