Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:00:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x3296…3a43 sports 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$74 (-7%) realized −$73 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate92%34W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days−$34
14 days−$77
30 days−$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% +$28
other 23% −$34
crypto 17% −$43
world 13% −$47
culture 11% +$11
politics 4% +$3
tech 4% +$2
finance 3% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +3.1% -6.8% 94% 36% -13.7%
≤30d 37 +0.7% -8.9% 92% 32% -17.3%
≤90d 37 +0.7% -8.9% 92% 32% -17.3%
all 37 +0.7% -8.9% 92% 32% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 32% -17.3%
10% -17.6% 5% -25.2%
15% -25.5% 0% -32.4%
20% -32.8% 0% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$48 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$214
Realized−$73
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses34 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)37 / 45
History coverage10d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? Jun 19 $20 $0 +2%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIF Jun 19 $20 +$4 +18%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Worl Jun 19 $20 +$4 +18%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Czechia vs South Africa F Jun 18 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 18 $30 +$4 +12%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 18 $9 +$1 +10%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 18 $30 +$3 +10%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W Jun 17 $20 +$3 +13%
Will the announcers say "Penalty" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W Jun 17 $20 +$2 +12%
Will the announcers say "Pressure" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Jun 17 $10 +$2 +20%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $30 +$2 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $20 +$4 +18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $20 +$2 +8%
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? Jun 15 $20 +$1 +6%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? Jun 15 $20 +$5 +24%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 15 $27 +$5 +21%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $30 +$2 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 14 $30 +$2 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $22 +$1 +4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $18 +$4 +23%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $30 +$1 +3%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $45 −$45 -100%
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $14 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $35 +$2 +6%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $30 +$2 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $30 +$3 +9%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 11? Jun 12 $30 +$3 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $53 −$50 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY No 99¢ $35 1h
Will "Maternal Instinct" be the top global Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 90¢ $30 1h
Will "I Will Find You" be the top US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 96¢ $30 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 1h
Will the announcers say "Header" during the USA vs Australia FIFA Worl BUY Yes 94¢ $10 1h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl BUY Yes 78¢ $20 1h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the USA vs Australia FIFA Wor BUY Yes 90¢ $40 1h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Las Vegas Aces 91¢ $9 37h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY No 98¢ $20 38h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Worl BUY Yes 84¢ $20 38h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Czechia vs South Africa F BUY Yes 90¢ $20 38h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIF BUY Yes 84¢ $20 38h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 91¢ $30 38h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 96¢ $20 38h
Will the announcers say "Penalty" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W BUY Yes 89¢ $20 2d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 BUY No 97¢ $10 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY No 89¢ $30 2d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 99¢ $2 3d
Will the announcers say "Pressure" during the England vs Croatia FIFA BUY Yes 83¢ $10 3d
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? BUY No 99¢ $30 3d
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W BUY Yes 88¢ $20 3d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 92¢ $20 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 84¢ $20 4d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $20 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $33 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 100¢ $32 4d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 92¢ $9 4d
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? BUY No 94¢ $20 4d
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? BUY No 80¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $213.96 · official $213.42 (match) · 80 history records