Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:54:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x3296…c186 sports 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$39 (-3%) realized +$80 · open −$119
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%37W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day28.3pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$36
14 days−$39
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$249
other 29% +$53
crypto 4% +$40
politics 0% $0
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -13.0% -21.3% 42% 42% -13.1%
≤30d 81 -10.3% -18.9% 46% 46% -13.2%
≤90d 81 -10.3% -18.9% 46% 46% -13.2%
all 81 -10.3% -18.9% 46% 46% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.9% 46% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -26.6% 40% -21.5%
15% -33.7% 33% -29.1%
20% -40.2% 31% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$80
Unrealized−$119
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses37 / 44
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)81 / 84
History coverage10d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day28.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 41¢ 30¢ $75 $56 −$19 (-26%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 13¢ $87 $0 −$87 (-100%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner Paper Rex 47¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$2 -3%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $1 $0 -6%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 21 $5 $0 -6%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$2 -3%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $7 +$6 +88%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $44 +$14 +33%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $50 −$1 -2%
Game Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs GLYPH (+1.5) Jun 21 $25 −$25 -99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $75 +$24 +32%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $45 +$11 +25%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 −$3 -32%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $33 −$20 -60%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $44 +$32 +74%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Game Handicap: Grind (-1.5) vs Carstensz (+1.5) Jun 20 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $47 +$33 +70%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Jun 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Map Handicap: LEV (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 20 $5 +$1 +13%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South Jun 20 $1 +$1 +64%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $6 +$5 +90%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$23 +74%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +55%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $32 +$7 +21%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $2 $0 +18%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $6 −$4 -67%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 19 $5 −$4 -83%
Game Handicap: XctN (-1.5) vs Carstensz (+1.5) Jun 19 $13 −$13 -99%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $6 +$4 +68%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $20 +$15 +76%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +32%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 18 $11 −$11 -98%
Spread: Canada (-4.5) Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $28 +$14 +50%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $8 +$7 +89%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$16 -83%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $16 −$12 -76%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$13 +137%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 41¢ $77 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 41¢ $77 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 43¢ $24 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 68¢ $24 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 43¢ $30 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 58¢ $1 1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) SELL Egypt 35¢ $5 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 61¢ $24 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $20 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex $1 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex $1 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex $3 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex $2 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex $2 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex $2 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 10¢ $1 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 17¢ $5 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 58¢ $26 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner BUY Paper Rex 13¢ $1 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner BUY Paper Rex 57¢ $7 3h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Paper Rex 89¢ $7 3h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner BUY Paper Rex 63¢ $5 3h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 60¢ $1 3h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 36¢ $5 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 3h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 45¢ $10 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 3h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner SELL Paper Rex 95¢ $13 4h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 96¢ $36 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Paper Rex 47¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.31 · official $54.48 · 304 history records