Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:40:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
32 0x3296…2597 other 469 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$68 (+4%) realized +$74 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%221W / 246L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day25.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$177
7 days−$42
14 days−$7
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$44
sports 10% +$19
crypto 1% −$4
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 +8.3% -2.0% 48% 47% -14.4%
≤30d 467 +4.4% -5.5% 47% 47% -6.2%
≤90d 467 +4.4% -5.5% 47% 47% -6.2%
all 467 +4.4% -5.5% 47% 47% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.5% 47% -6.2%
10% ← realistic here -14.5% 47% -15.2%
15% -22.8% 45% -23.3%
20% -30.4% 40% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$74
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses221 / 246
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)467 / 469
History coverage29d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day25.6
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 467 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 41¢ 36¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Londrina EC leading at halftime? Yes 98¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 235 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $12 +$13 +105%
Criciúma EC leading at halftime? Jun 16 $10 +$12 +116%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +48%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 +$6 +93%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $6 +$10 +165%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$4 +109%
Will Operário Ferroviário EC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$6 +139%
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$4 +260%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
CD Universidad Católica leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +91%
Grêmio Novorizontino leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Botafogo FC leading at halftime? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$5 +258%
Will Athletic Club vs. Goiás EC end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$4 +213%
Will Goiás EC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +143%
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Málaga CF leading at halftime? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Athletic Club leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will CD Concepción win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +258%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $97 +$18 +18%
CD Limache leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will São Bernardo FC vs. SC Recife end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
EC Juventude leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 +$10 +99%
Will São Bernardo FC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
São Bernardo FC vs. SC Recife: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
São Bernardo FC leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $52 −$51 -99%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $22 −$2 -8%
Will CD Real Tomayapo win on 2026-05-30? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will CD Huachipato win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +94%
Will CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$9 +186%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $30 +$31 +103%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $12 +$7 +54%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +90%
United States vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $5 +$4 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 43m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $25 44m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $12 1h
Criciúma EC leading at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $22 1h
Criciúma EC leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 2h
Londrina EC leading at halftime? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $7 3h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $5 4h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 98¢ $7 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 7h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $5 8h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $10 10h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 10h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $20 25h
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 25h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $6 25h
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $9 26h
Will Operário Ferroviário EC win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $10 26h
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 85¢ $6 26h
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 26h
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 26h
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 27h
Will Operário Ferroviário EC win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 41¢ $4 27h
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 47¢ $4 28h
CD Universidad Católica leading at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 28h
Grêmio Novorizontino leading at halftime? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.90 · official $8.90 (match) · 767 history records