Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:33:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

32 0x329e…e12a other 5 markets active 13h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$67 (-68%) realized −$67 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -65% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -69% what you keep after slip

Net edge-69%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$20per market

Trades / day5.3pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-68.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-64.7%	-68.1%	33%	0%	-87.7%
≤30d	3	-64.7%	-68.1%	33%	0%	-87.7%
≤90d	3	-64.7%	-68.1%	33%	0%	-87.7%
all	3	-64.7%	-68.1%	33%	0%	-87.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-68.1%	0%	-87.7%
10%	-71.1%	0%	-88.9%
15%	-73.9%	0%	-89.9%
20%	-76.5%	0%	-90.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -86% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -65% · $-wt -86% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1 vs −$34 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.01 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$20

Realized−$67

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$20

Trades / day5.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	70¢	70¢	$10	$10	+$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	91¢	92¢	$10	$10	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$10	+$1	+6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$59	−$58	-99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$10	−$10	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$11	13h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$8	35h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	70¢	$10	45h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	91¢	$10	45h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	94¢	$10	45h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	82¢	$10	45h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	58¢	$51	45h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.13 · official $20.13 (match) · 7 history records